Fall 2021
Dear Friends and Family,
Without question the United States and China are in an Artificial Intelligence race with the winner most likely having the power to rule the world. Here is my assessment of the status of the race based on the excerpts.
My Takeaways:
Next: How AI is going to progress in the U.S. and the resultant societal impacts is a matter of speculation. Futurist Amy Webb has posited three such scenarios. Segment 13 will feature two: a pragmatic scenario and a catastrophic scenario. Additionally, Rajiv Malhotra developed one titled “Happy Morons and Depopulation. All three are societally dire in their consequences. Amy Webb’s third scenario is featured in Segment 14.
Happy Learning,
Harley
Dear Friends and Family,
Without question the United States and China are in an Artificial Intelligence race with the winner most likely having the power to rule the world. Here is my assessment of the status of the race based on the excerpts.
My Takeaways:
- America’s advantage technologically is in the creation, innovation and development of new technologies. Much of that work in AI is completed.
- China’s advantage technologically is speed – speed in reverse engineering, speed in practical application, speed in implementation, and speed in localization and adaption.
- China has many advantages politically – they are better strategic and long-range planners than the U.S. Their entrepreneurs have far less bureaucracy and regulation hurdles than the U.S. Their form of governance achieves unity of purpose and implementation faster than that of the U.S. where most everything has to be debated to the point that consensus is reached. Most of their citizenry will “fall-in-line” with the initiative and all its aspects. That will not be the case in the U.S.
- The U.S. free-market system will sort out the good versus the not so good applications faster than the Chinese, based on consumer purchases. In my judgment, the innovation which occurs in the emerging implementation phase is the U.S.’s primary means to win the race.
- Government support will be far greater in China than the U.S. The largest question in the U.S is whether Big Tech will take an America First or a Globalist perspective and prioritize AI applications accordingly. The America first perspective by Big Tech seemingly is the assumption by the current administration given that only one in twelve people on the new AI task force is from Big Tech. I hope their assumption is correct.
Next: How AI is going to progress in the U.S. and the resultant societal impacts is a matter of speculation. Futurist Amy Webb has posited three such scenarios. Segment 13 will feature two: a pragmatic scenario and a catastrophic scenario. Additionally, Rajiv Malhotra developed one titled “Happy Morons and Depopulation. All three are societally dire in their consequences. Amy Webb’s third scenario is featured in Segment 14.
Happy Learning,
Harley
BIG TECH & AI – SEGMENT 12
BATTLE FOR WORLD DOMINATION – EXCERPTS
BATTLE FOR WORLD DOMINATION – EXCERPTS
Artificial Intelligence is to China’s 21st century rise to power what the Industrial Revolution was to Britain’s ascendance in the late 1700s. Rajiv Malhotra
CHINA’S IMPLEMENTATION OF THEIR STRATEGIC PLAN: The Chinese government made a bold bet by placing AI at the center of its strategic vision to leapfrog ahead of the US in every major field by 2050. Its ambitious plan established milestones and measurable benchmarks to assess progress along the way. The Chinese Communist Party has declared its intent to pursue a “first-mover advantage” in order to establish itself as “the world’s primary AI innovation center.
China is strategically investing large capital reserves well beyond its borders. As with everything else, this capital diversification is being implemented in a centrally planned and targeted approach. Among the bigger initiatives being undertaken are:
Belt and Road Initiative: China is building an ambitious network called the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes infrastructure investments in 70 countries across Asia, Africa and Europe. The project uses cutting-edge technology to develop, operate and maintain end-to-end control over roads, railways and sea routes. The initiative also includes an electric grid and a communications network – the largest and most sophisticated global logistics network ever undertaken by any country in history. These agreements give China disproportionate ownership, whether direct or indirect, of the new infrastructure. China claims it is creating employment in the short term as well as helping these countries’ long-term economies by providing sophisticated infrastructures; critics respond that China is creating persistent dependency.
Surveillance: Chinese-designed 5G networks are acquiring a large market share worldwide and this will enable real-time acquisition of data from around the globe that could potentially be sent back to the Chinese government.
Military Efforts: Western scholars have conceded that China, not the US, leads the world in the military application of drone technology. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has developed autonomous killer robots, cloud-based drone squadrons, and autonomous landing vehicles. All these systems use machine-learning to make independent decisions, such as plotting routes and avoiding obstacles.
China has a centrally planned, joint military-civilian national strategy with exploration and innovation in biological research as a priority. For over a decade, academic and military researchers have been developing their ability to exploit AI in order to weaponize biotechnology. The US fears that China is currently developing genetic weapons for the purpose of winning a bloodless victory. The way is to manipulate the psychological behavior of a population or spread specially manufactured microbes to defeat an enemy without the need to wage conventional war. Such applications are just the tip of the AI iceberg. For China, Ai is clearly inseparable from their nation-building agenda. If AI were to flounder for some reason, China would suffer a definitive setback to its ambitions. The country has literally bet its entire future on AI.
Digital Colonization: A new era of colonization – namely, digital colonization—is already underway. The associated economic, social and political effects would devastate other countries, which will be relegated to the status of colonies or satellites. And China’s grip on its colonies will strengthen – including large parts of Africa and Latin American as well as Asian countries like Pakistan. Those countries left behind are destined for digital colonization in the same way the Industrial Revolution enslaved many parts of the world. Countries starting late in the AI race, will eventually give up, forced to accept their fate as a second-tier player and becoming, in effect, a dependent nation or even a virtual colony. Developing countries face a dilemma: Connecting to global networks is critical to their development, yet those networks are controlled by the West or China. Consequently, poor nations must compromise their data assets, and potentially their sovereignty, just to get connected.
Source: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power by Rajiv Malhotra (2021).
U.S. GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: Though China was quite open about its global ambitions during the past two decades, the US did not consider it a serious threat until recently. The US had bought into China’s public posture that both would be friendly superpowers and the rise of China would expand the global economy for the benefit of all. Also, the US felt that converting China into free market capitalism would be a moral and ideological victory. However, China’s recent behavior and the economic and geopolitical price the US is paying has triggered the alarm bells. The most shocking impact on US thinking toward China has been the US military’s assessment that China is rapidly catching up in weapon’s technology, and that this has been based on the theft of intellectual property.
In February 2019, President Trump issued an executive order to focus on AI with the statement:
China is strategically investing large capital reserves well beyond its borders. As with everything else, this capital diversification is being implemented in a centrally planned and targeted approach. Among the bigger initiatives being undertaken are:
- Building an AI-based economy that achieves global supremacy within the next 25 years.
- Building a military force on par with the US in most respects using the latest technological innovations, and especially prominent in the neighborhood of the Indo-Pacific region.
- Building and controlling major trade routes worldwide. All roads led to Rome in ancient times, but all roads will lead to China by the middle of the 21st century according to their ambition. Such a broad logistics network will give China access to precious raw materials in places ranging from Africa to South America. It will also enable China to gain end-to-end control over supply chains, enabling the efficient transport of Chinese finished goods to every corner of the world. For instance, by 2050, Africa will have two billion people, 40% of the world’s renewable energy, and the world’s fastest-growing economy. China has already captured the strategic high ground in Africa by buying long-term positions in natural resources, logistics and government relations.
Belt and Road Initiative: China is building an ambitious network called the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes infrastructure investments in 70 countries across Asia, Africa and Europe. The project uses cutting-edge technology to develop, operate and maintain end-to-end control over roads, railways and sea routes. The initiative also includes an electric grid and a communications network – the largest and most sophisticated global logistics network ever undertaken by any country in history. These agreements give China disproportionate ownership, whether direct or indirect, of the new infrastructure. China claims it is creating employment in the short term as well as helping these countries’ long-term economies by providing sophisticated infrastructures; critics respond that China is creating persistent dependency.
Surveillance: Chinese-designed 5G networks are acquiring a large market share worldwide and this will enable real-time acquisition of data from around the globe that could potentially be sent back to the Chinese government.
Military Efforts: Western scholars have conceded that China, not the US, leads the world in the military application of drone technology. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has developed autonomous killer robots, cloud-based drone squadrons, and autonomous landing vehicles. All these systems use machine-learning to make independent decisions, such as plotting routes and avoiding obstacles.
China has a centrally planned, joint military-civilian national strategy with exploration and innovation in biological research as a priority. For over a decade, academic and military researchers have been developing their ability to exploit AI in order to weaponize biotechnology. The US fears that China is currently developing genetic weapons for the purpose of winning a bloodless victory. The way is to manipulate the psychological behavior of a population or spread specially manufactured microbes to defeat an enemy without the need to wage conventional war. Such applications are just the tip of the AI iceberg. For China, Ai is clearly inseparable from their nation-building agenda. If AI were to flounder for some reason, China would suffer a definitive setback to its ambitions. The country has literally bet its entire future on AI.
Digital Colonization: A new era of colonization – namely, digital colonization—is already underway. The associated economic, social and political effects would devastate other countries, which will be relegated to the status of colonies or satellites. And China’s grip on its colonies will strengthen – including large parts of Africa and Latin American as well as Asian countries like Pakistan. Those countries left behind are destined for digital colonization in the same way the Industrial Revolution enslaved many parts of the world. Countries starting late in the AI race, will eventually give up, forced to accept their fate as a second-tier player and becoming, in effect, a dependent nation or even a virtual colony. Developing countries face a dilemma: Connecting to global networks is critical to their development, yet those networks are controlled by the West or China. Consequently, poor nations must compromise their data assets, and potentially their sovereignty, just to get connected.
Source: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power by Rajiv Malhotra (2021).
U.S. GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: Though China was quite open about its global ambitions during the past two decades, the US did not consider it a serious threat until recently. The US had bought into China’s public posture that both would be friendly superpowers and the rise of China would expand the global economy for the benefit of all. Also, the US felt that converting China into free market capitalism would be a moral and ideological victory. However, China’s recent behavior and the economic and geopolitical price the US is paying has triggered the alarm bells. The most shocking impact on US thinking toward China has been the US military’s assessment that China is rapidly catching up in weapon’s technology, and that this has been based on the theft of intellectual property.
In February 2019, President Trump issued an executive order to focus on AI with the statement:
Continued American leadership in Artificial Intelligence is of paramount importance in maintaining the economic and national security of the United States. The age of AI has arrived and is transforming everything from healthcare to transportation to manufacturing. America has long been the global leader in the new era of AI and is poised to maintain this leadership going forward because of our strong innovation ecosystem. Realizing the full potential of AI for the Nation requires the combined efforts of industry, academia, and government. The Administration has been active in developing policies and implementing strategies that accelerate AI innovation in the US for the benefit of the American people.
The US government is now actively throwing its weight to counteract China’s AI initiatives that pose a national security threat. For instance, the hardware technology for AI has been declared a national security asset by the US and bans have been imposed to prevent this technology from getting into Chinese hands. The strategic intent is to advance and protect AI technology and innovation as a national asset. The threats are across the entire spectrum of American and Western civilization’s domination in recent centuries: technology, economics, military, geopolitics, prestige, culture, and even moral authority. This is something the US simply cannot afford to accept. Nor are the Chinese likely to pull back from their march ahead. Therefore, we have entered a new period of cold war between these two superpowers. Unlike the cold war with the Soviet Union, in this instance the US faces a more serious opponent.
Source: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power: by Rajiv Malhotra (2021)
The Biden Administration Launches the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource Task Force (NAIRR):
Today (June 10, 2021), the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the National Science Foundation (NSF) announced the newly formed NAIRR which will write the road map for expanding access to critical resources and educational tools that will spur AI innovation and economic prosperity nationwide. The Task Force will submit two reports to Congress that together will present a comprehensive strategy and implementation plan – an interim report in May 2022 and final report in November 2022. [Note: The task force consists of 4 people from various government agencies – 2 are the co-leaders, 5 people from academia, 1 from an AI training company, 1 from a 2015 startup AI research firm, and 1 from Google.
Source: White House Press Release 6/10/2021.
ADVANTAGE CHINA: I believe that the skillful application of AI will be China’s greatest opportunity to catch up with – and possibly surpass – the United States. Moving from discovery to implementation reduces one of China’s greatest weak points (outside-the-box approaches to research questions) and also leverages the country’s most significant strength: scrappy entrepreneurs with sharp instincts for building robust businesses. The transition from expertise to data has a similar benefit, downplaying the importance of the globally elite researchers that China lacks and maximizing the value of another key resource that China has in abundance, data. I’ve spent decades embedded in both Silicon Valley and China’s tech scene, working at Apple, Microsoft, and Google before incubating and investing in dozens of Chinese startups. I can tell you that Silicon Valley looks downright sluggish compared to its competitor across the Pacific.
China’s successful internet entrepreneurs live in a world where speed is essential, copying is an accepted practice, and competitors will stop at nothing to win a new market. The battles are life or death, and your opponents have no scruples. This rough and tumble environment makes a strong contrast to Silicon Valley, where copying is stigmatized, and many companies are allowed to coast on the basis of one original idea or lucky break.
China’s alternate digital universe now creates and captures oceans of new data about the real world. That wealth of information on users – their location every second of the day, how they commute, what foods they like, when and where they buy groceries and beer – will prove invaluable in the era of AI implementation. To get one’s hands dirty in the real world separate Chinese technology companies from their Silicon Valley peers. American startups like to stick to what they know: building clean digital platforms that facilitate information exchanges.
These recent and powerful developments naturally tilt the balance of power in China’s direction. But on top of this natural rebalancing, China’s government’s sweeping plan for becoming an AI superpower, pledged widespread support and funding for AI research, but most of all it acted as a beacon to local governments throughout the country to follow suit. China’s State Council – roughly equivalent to the U.S. president’s cabinet – issued a major direction on advancing mass entrepreneurship and innovation. China’s central government laid out the goals, but implementation was left up to thousands of mayors and local officials scattered around the country. Promotion for local officials in China’s government bureaucracy is based on performance evaluations conducted by higher-ups withing the Communist Party’s internal human resources department. So, when the central government sets a clear goal – a new metric on which lower-level officials can demonstrate their competence – ambitious officials everywhere throw themselves into advancing that goal and proving themselves capable. It stands in sharp contrast to a U.S. government that deliberately takes a hands-off approach to entrepreneurship and is actively slashing the funding for basic research.
I believe that China will soon match or overtake the U.S. in developing and deploying AI. In my view, that lead in AI implementation will translate into productivity gains on a scale not seen since the Industrial Revolution.
Source: AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order by Kai-Fu Lee (2018)
We are likely at the biggest geopolitical turning point since the Second World War. Big Tech will be at the center of it. And the Internet itself will be the battlefield. It’s a far cry from the happy, connected world that the Big Tech utopians once dreamed about. The Chinese have spent the past several years moving up the value chain, and now they want to use their system of state capitalism to give preferences to homegrown players, many of whom are just as competitive as American firms in the home market. Indeed, it’s a wonder to me that American firms ever believed they’d be able to compete with Chinese firms in their home market on a completely equal footing. Pointing to already dominant brands like Xiaomi, which now sells more mobile phones in China than Apple, the question in the future will be, “Why buy a Western brand?”
Source: Don’t Be Evil: The Case Against Big Tech by Rana Foroohar (2021).
A POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCE: Throughout history, the dynamics of power has shifted from era to era. A new epoch is dawning, where power will be concentrated in the hands of those AI-based algorithms that drive the digital platforms. The AI-based concentration of power has taken on a terrifying new aspect. Private companies are accumulating immense power based on their ability to leverage AI and big data as tools to influence, manipulate and even control the minds of people. Some of these private companies may soon become more powerful than many nation-states, but the shift will not be obvious. Their unprecedented knowledge of people and things around the world, coupled with their ability to disrupt the physical world and manipulate people’s choices, will lead to a new nexus of power. Such companies will decide who will, and who will not, be given access to this new form of power, and on what terms.
CONCLUSION
The unabbreviated version of the above can be found in the pdf document below.
Source: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power: by Rajiv Malhotra (2021)
The Biden Administration Launches the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource Task Force (NAIRR):
Today (June 10, 2021), the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the National Science Foundation (NSF) announced the newly formed NAIRR which will write the road map for expanding access to critical resources and educational tools that will spur AI innovation and economic prosperity nationwide. The Task Force will submit two reports to Congress that together will present a comprehensive strategy and implementation plan – an interim report in May 2022 and final report in November 2022. [Note: The task force consists of 4 people from various government agencies – 2 are the co-leaders, 5 people from academia, 1 from an AI training company, 1 from a 2015 startup AI research firm, and 1 from Google.
Source: White House Press Release 6/10/2021.
ADVANTAGE CHINA: I believe that the skillful application of AI will be China’s greatest opportunity to catch up with – and possibly surpass – the United States. Moving from discovery to implementation reduces one of China’s greatest weak points (outside-the-box approaches to research questions) and also leverages the country’s most significant strength: scrappy entrepreneurs with sharp instincts for building robust businesses. The transition from expertise to data has a similar benefit, downplaying the importance of the globally elite researchers that China lacks and maximizing the value of another key resource that China has in abundance, data. I’ve spent decades embedded in both Silicon Valley and China’s tech scene, working at Apple, Microsoft, and Google before incubating and investing in dozens of Chinese startups. I can tell you that Silicon Valley looks downright sluggish compared to its competitor across the Pacific.
China’s successful internet entrepreneurs live in a world where speed is essential, copying is an accepted practice, and competitors will stop at nothing to win a new market. The battles are life or death, and your opponents have no scruples. This rough and tumble environment makes a strong contrast to Silicon Valley, where copying is stigmatized, and many companies are allowed to coast on the basis of one original idea or lucky break.
China’s alternate digital universe now creates and captures oceans of new data about the real world. That wealth of information on users – their location every second of the day, how they commute, what foods they like, when and where they buy groceries and beer – will prove invaluable in the era of AI implementation. To get one’s hands dirty in the real world separate Chinese technology companies from their Silicon Valley peers. American startups like to stick to what they know: building clean digital platforms that facilitate information exchanges.
These recent and powerful developments naturally tilt the balance of power in China’s direction. But on top of this natural rebalancing, China’s government’s sweeping plan for becoming an AI superpower, pledged widespread support and funding for AI research, but most of all it acted as a beacon to local governments throughout the country to follow suit. China’s State Council – roughly equivalent to the U.S. president’s cabinet – issued a major direction on advancing mass entrepreneurship and innovation. China’s central government laid out the goals, but implementation was left up to thousands of mayors and local officials scattered around the country. Promotion for local officials in China’s government bureaucracy is based on performance evaluations conducted by higher-ups withing the Communist Party’s internal human resources department. So, when the central government sets a clear goal – a new metric on which lower-level officials can demonstrate their competence – ambitious officials everywhere throw themselves into advancing that goal and proving themselves capable. It stands in sharp contrast to a U.S. government that deliberately takes a hands-off approach to entrepreneurship and is actively slashing the funding for basic research.
I believe that China will soon match or overtake the U.S. in developing and deploying AI. In my view, that lead in AI implementation will translate into productivity gains on a scale not seen since the Industrial Revolution.
Source: AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order by Kai-Fu Lee (2018)
We are likely at the biggest geopolitical turning point since the Second World War. Big Tech will be at the center of it. And the Internet itself will be the battlefield. It’s a far cry from the happy, connected world that the Big Tech utopians once dreamed about. The Chinese have spent the past several years moving up the value chain, and now they want to use their system of state capitalism to give preferences to homegrown players, many of whom are just as competitive as American firms in the home market. Indeed, it’s a wonder to me that American firms ever believed they’d be able to compete with Chinese firms in their home market on a completely equal footing. Pointing to already dominant brands like Xiaomi, which now sells more mobile phones in China than Apple, the question in the future will be, “Why buy a Western brand?”
Source: Don’t Be Evil: The Case Against Big Tech by Rana Foroohar (2021).
A POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCE: Throughout history, the dynamics of power has shifted from era to era. A new epoch is dawning, where power will be concentrated in the hands of those AI-based algorithms that drive the digital platforms. The AI-based concentration of power has taken on a terrifying new aspect. Private companies are accumulating immense power based on their ability to leverage AI and big data as tools to influence, manipulate and even control the minds of people. Some of these private companies may soon become more powerful than many nation-states, but the shift will not be obvious. Their unprecedented knowledge of people and things around the world, coupled with their ability to disrupt the physical world and manipulate people’s choices, will lead to a new nexus of power. Such companies will decide who will, and who will not, be given access to this new form of power, and on what terms.
CONCLUSION
- The Battleground of the Economy: The undeniable fact is that to stay competitive, businesses must adopt AI to cut costs and improve quality; the interest of workers is secondary. Even the optimists admit that the geopolitical locations where new jobs will be created will not be the same places where they are destroyed – creating imbalances between regions within a country as well as between countries.
- The Battleground of Global Power: No discussion on AI is complete without examining China’s role, and no evaluation of China’s future can fail to include AI at the center of its strategies. The clash between the U.S. and China is this race for AI leadership because both countries know fully well that whoever dominates this technology stands to occupy the military and economic high ground. China is becoming like the European colonial empires of the past and is in an all-out imperialistic clash with the United States. Apart from the US, China, and a few other countries, most nations will lag increasingly as time goes by. It is virtually impossible to catch up.
- The Battleground of Agency: The third battleground is over the agency and psychological control of the public on a large scale. Digital interventions through messaging and Virtual/Augmented Reality can already generate pleasures and activate brain processes correlated with dopamine, the feel-good hormone. What is coming next will be implants that go even further to artificially manipulate the mind. This will lead to remote-controlled dopamine and digitally managed mental states of individuals and raise new ethical, social, and political dilemmas. I think of this as the gratification of social behavior and predict this is becoming commonplace.
The unabbreviated version of the above can be found in the pdf document below.
| 12l_big_tech_12l_battle_for_world_domination_--_segment_12.pdf |