October 17, 2023
Dear Friends and Family,
This is a very important segment as it is a segue between the problems of decline in America to potential solutions for the problems. In the transition I switch the framework from the Roman Empire’s reasons for decline to Ray Dalio’s model of the power struggles which precede a major war which was covered in the last segment. So, if you skip this segment, you will have difficulty understanding the remaining segments of the series.
Before we focus on solutions, we have to catalog the wisdom we have developed to date and summarize them in concise decline problem definitions. That is the objective and content of this segment. I have developed the decline problem definitions – they contain no excerpts but do contain a few quotes, which are identified and make up the text.
Technology was not a strong consideration in the rise and fall of the Roman Empire, but it is a critical factor in today’s world. So, I need to provide you with the excerpts from my research on technology that served as the basis of the problem definition for the technology war we are currently involved with. Those excerpts are contained in the attached PDF to this segment titled “The Technology of the Future.”
Happy Learning,
Harley
Dear Friends and Family,
This is a very important segment as it is a segue between the problems of decline in America to potential solutions for the problems. In the transition I switch the framework from the Roman Empire’s reasons for decline to Ray Dalio’s model of the power struggles which precede a major war which was covered in the last segment. So, if you skip this segment, you will have difficulty understanding the remaining segments of the series.
Before we focus on solutions, we have to catalog the wisdom we have developed to date and summarize them in concise decline problem definitions. That is the objective and content of this segment. I have developed the decline problem definitions – they contain no excerpts but do contain a few quotes, which are identified and make up the text.
Technology was not a strong consideration in the rise and fall of the Roman Empire, but it is a critical factor in today’s world. So, I need to provide you with the excerpts from my research on technology that served as the basis of the problem definition for the technology war we are currently involved with. Those excerpts are contained in the attached PDF to this segment titled “The Technology of the Future.”
Happy Learning,
Harley
SEEKING WISDOM FOR AMERICA – SEGMENT 15
CAPTURING THE WISDOM WE HAVE UNCOVERED
OVERVIEW & CONTEXT
Significant wisdom has been uncovered in the 14 segments of the series to date. So, I am pausing to catalog and review the wisdom we have garnered to date before proceeding. The review will be my interpretations and will involve no excerpts.
Great empires typically last about 250 years, give or take 100 years. Since 1600 they have included the Netherlands and its reserve currency the Guilder, the United Kingdom and its Pound, followed by the United States and the dollar.
The internal order and disorder cycle of great empires/superpowers is similar: Stage 1 – a new order begins with new leadership and consolidation of power; Stage 2 – a government bureaucracy is built and refined consisting of rules (laws), a governing system, including institutions and policies, and a financial system with a currency; Stage 3: peace and prosperity is achieved; Stage 4 – excessive spending and debt transpires with a widening of wealth and political gaps; Stage 5 – an advent of bad financial conditions and intense conflict erupts; Stage 6 – Civil War or Revolution breaks out.
The external order and disorder of empires/superpowers is very similar to the internal order and disorder cycle with one exception. International relations as opposed to internal relations are driven by raw power dynamics. This occurs if two countries have similar power and are unwilling to share that power the result is generally war. In such cases international law becomes mute and a fight ensues to see which power prevails. Then Stage 6 is a Major war.
Today China and India look to be in Stage 2 of the cycle and the U.S. and Europe are in Stage 5.
Countries in Stage 5 of the internal order and disorder cycle pray that a “strong leader” who can bring the country together emerges. A person who can reach out to the other side and involve them in the decision making to reshape the governing system, rules, and institutions in a way that the populace agrees is fair, works well, and meets the citizen’s needs via compromise. This is needed to avoid Stage 6 and a Civil War.
Countries in Stage 5 of the external order and disorder cycle pose a different problem. Since the greatest risk of a military war occurs when the military power of one superpower plus its allies matches that of another superpower power and their allies and the two have irreconcilable and existential differences. Then a single leader can’t bring them together. Then to avoid a military conflict either the differences have to be assuaged through negotiation and diplomacy or the strength of one becomes so overpowering that the other cedes before conflict.
In today’s world we can see two superpowers and their allies starting to form. One is China, with its allies being Russia, North Korea, and Iran. China is also seemingly trying to recruit Africa, South and Central America to its side via its Belt and Road initiative. The second is the United States and its NATO allies plus Japan, South Korea, and Australia. An outstanding question is with whom will India ally or will they remain neutral.
Ray Dalio the author who gave us the above cycle theories posits that the odds of the United States entering a Civil War in the next ten years is 30% and that of a major external war in the same time period is 50/50.
A major piece of wisdom was in segment 14 where Dalio posited that there are different power struggles or wars that go on before the shooting and killing erupts in a major Military war. These historically include a trade war, a technology war, a geopolitical war, a capital war, and internal struggles (war).
In a Civil war the power struggles (wars) are internal versus external, and the internal struggles result from differences in how to manage capital and geopolitical issues plus very strong opinions on internal policy and actions that are irreconcilable.
We have just finished nine segments determining how today’s conditions in the U.S. for the reasons the Roman Empire declined and failed. Can that analysis be transposed to of the different power struggles (wars) that Dalio posited for an external war. The answer is yes. Here is how:
So, for the remainder of the series we will be analyzing these five power struggles (wars) currently occurring. The remaining segments in the series following this segment are focused on solutions to the problems defined by the wisdom we have garnered to date. To do so effectively, the problems require more definition. Such problem definitions follow for the capital war, the geopolitical war, the technology war, the internal war (a segment for values and divisions within and a second segment for political instability) and the military war. Thus, there are five wars with six problem definitions in that order which follow, all based on the wisdom garnered from the analysis of today’s situation in the U.S. for the eight Roman Empire reasons for failure.
Problem Definition #1: THE CAPITAL WAR
Government spending has exceeded revenues for each of the last 22 years. As a result, our national debt has increased from $5.6 trillion in 2001 to $33 trillion today or a 589% increase. Three long-term measurements of economic health -– debt-to-GDP ratio, interest bite (annual debt service-to-federal tax receipts), and government spending-to-GDP ratio –- indicates we are in trouble on all three which will become much worse by Congressional Budget Office projections.
This has led two rating agencies to downgrade the credit rating for the U.S. government. Having reduced creditworthiness results in less investors wanting to invest in loaning us money to finance our exorbitant debt. Being underfunded on the debt will likely result in “printing money” to meet the shortfall (i.e., loaning money to ourselves). This eventually lessens the value of the dollar on the global market which in turn reduces the use of the dollar for international trade which lessens the dollar’s use as the world’s reserve currency. Lessening the dollar’s use as reserve currency not only leads to increases in interest rates to finance our debt but importantly results in a loss of power to influence geopolitical aspects of the world.
Further, significant government overspending in 2021 and 2022 lead to inflation. To control inflation our central bank (the Federal Reserve) increased the Federal Funds rate by 5.25% with eight rate increases. This not only increased the country’s expenses by $1 trillion/year (an increase of 16.7%) but also the interest rates on all loans throughout the country. In its entirety we have a downward spiraling capital market that needs to be reversed.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that under current trends, the debt could easily reach 200% of GDP by the year 2050 and interest payments on the debt will take up nearly 40% of all federal revenues versus a good economic health target of below 15%.
The resolution to the problem is exacerbated by three things.
Problem Definition #2: THE GEOPOLITICAL WAR
As was the case in the Capital War problem definition, our geopolitical problems are and continue to be self-inflicted, meaning we have a chance to find solutions to fix them.
First Problem: (a) We outsourced most of our manufacturing to China and became a service economy. This was most evident during the pandemic when we could not manufacture preventive production products for our first responders and infected citizenry. (b) Supply chain bottlenecks became very apparent when we had scores of freighters sitting outside west coast ports and couldn’t get them unloaded and disbursed fast enough. (c) U.S. multinational corporations were quick to relocate their manufacturing processes to China in their greed to increase profits with cheap foreign labor. Now that the Chinese have reaped the benefits of our dollars and intellectual property, many of these companies are leaving China in search of other countries with cheap labor or in some cases returning their manufacturing to U.S. soil. (d) Abandoning any sort of obligation to America has resulted in the suffering of the American worker, the weakening of U.S. national security, and the transfer of significant intellectual property. Further China has gained a significant trade advantage and can hold us hostage in attaining critical supplies most particularly medicines and rare earths they uniquely control. (e) outsourcing our energy.
Second Problem: Our political clout was weakened with the humiliating and horrific withdrawal from Afghanistan, followed by the lack of attention to the successfully negotiated Abraham Accords. As a result, China filled the geopolitical void in the Middle East successfully brokering a treaty alliance between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now China is a power player in the Middle East replacing the U.S. who has held that distinction for three quarters of a century. A similar outcome is evident in Brazil who now has an exclusive trade deal with China, with a monetary agreement to use their respective currency’s thus turning their back on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Our geopolitical clout will be further weakened given the recent downgrade of the country’s credit worthiness.
Third Problem: As Senator Marco Rubio points out, “Our reliance on China – financial and otherwise – is the direct result of decades of bad U.S. policy. Not only did we help and enable them to enter the World Trade Organization, but China successfully exploited American ambition – ambition to open markets, ambition to spread democracy, ambition to make obscene amounts of money – and now we are paying the price.” China now has an explicit goal of becoming the world’s only superpower by 2049. The only way that can be averted is if China implodes or the United States stops them.
Fourth Problem: We are showing extreme weakness when the only thing the Chinese People’s Party respects is solid, consistent strength. We have been very passive if not neglectful by not confronting them for the millions of deaths from the lab-leaked Covid-19 virus or the thousands of fentanyl deaths.
Fifth Problem: How could the rest of the world possibly look favorably to us to help protect them when we don’t even have the resolve to protect ourselves from the travesties of our open southern border. We have scores of people coming in unvetted, unvaccinated, uneducated with valid expectations of being housed, fed, and clothed with free medical care and schooling. The numbers are so significant that Democratic governors and mayors are screaming at the Biden administration for help and relief. The pleas are falling on deaf ears, so state and local officials are having to shave their budgets to free up funds for the illegals care, including budget cuts for already traumatized cops. This open border policy is resulting in a proliferation of fentanyl deaths, sex trafficking, cartel embolden, and terrorists entering our country.
In its entirety it is a geopolitical mess if not a travesty.
Problem Definition #3: THE TECHNOLOGY WAR
Effective application of new technologies will determine the winner of the technology war and quite possibly the overall conflict as it has in the past. Artificial Intelligence is undoubtedly a technology which has capability to dramatically change our lifestyle, prosperity, and global society like no other in history. The associated changes could both be positive or negative dependent on the choices the world makes in its application.
On the Positive Side: In healthcare AI can be used to rapidly analyze thousands of scientific articles for insights leading to breakthroughs in new drugs, treatment, or clinical processes. Wearables or implanted mechanisms can monitor an individual on a continual basis for changes and provide alerts to seek specific treatment faster than an individual can do it themselves.
In day to day living AI can power robots to do household chores, cook meals, or even provide companionship. AI can be utilized to provide us with driverless cars and trucks. In an AI smart home AI can determine menus for food, inventory your refrigerator and pantry, resulting in a grocery list that can be transmitted to a grocery store and be delivered to your house by self-guided drones.
From a military aspect, drones can be equipped with satellite imagery and AI-based vision and then flown as a squadron for an airborne attack on any enemy. Robots can become foot soldiers capable of fighting battles in any terrain in any weather conditions.
In education, AI can be used to accelerate learning from kindergarten to universities by personalizing instruction after AI has analyzed the student’s physical and mental health conditions and then developed an understanding of the individual’s learning habits.
These illustrations are only a starting point for the use of AI technology in a positive way.
On the Negative Side: Medical and educational algorithms could introduce bias based on race, gender, age, income, etc. Individual personal data can be captured and used to benefit others for profit or behavioral control. AI replacement of people doing physical and mental tasks could result in massive unemployment creating chaos in society as a whole. This could lead to government behavioral control as is being developed in China. From a 12/2021 Business Insider article:
The CCP has been constructing a moral ranking system for years that will monitor the behavior of the enormous population – and rank them all based on their “social credit.” Like private credit scores, a person’s social score can move up and down depending on their behavior. The exact methodology is a secret – but examples of infractions include bad driving, smoking in un-smoking areas, buying too many video games, wasting money on frivolous purchases and posting on social media.
The Challenge of the Technology War is to gain the positives from the technology while minimizing the negatives plus accomplishing it faster and better than China, as we are the only two countries in the game. Additionally, protecting ourselves from a technological attack.
Meeting the Challenge: China and the United States are approaching AI development in very different ways. China began in 1980 with a long-term strategy for world domination, incorporating AI as a fundamental element of the strategy. Their approach is top-down management with set goals for the state to accomplish. In doing so, the state directs Chinese technology enterprise.
The U.S. is approaching the war without a grand strategy. We are relying on six big American tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM, and Apple) to develop and apply AI within the country with the philosophy that a free-market approach will win. So, gaining the positives and minimizing the negative and doing both faster than the Chinese is in the hands of the six Big Tech firms. The only recent action on the part of our government was identifying Vice President Kamala Harris as the Czar of AI. From such action or lack thereof, I conclude they don’t believe we are in a technology war.
With respect to protecting our country from a technological attack, two such potentials have been identified. The first is an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack on our electricity grids. Such attacks are relatively easy to do on a regional or national basis. ISIS, al-Qaeda, or Syria could enact a regional attack. A national attack is a bit more complicated, but China or Russia could enact such an attack today and North Korea and Iran are not too far behind in having the same capability. Such an attack could result in a total loss of electricity throughout the country for at least a year per the EMP Commission and would lead to a catastrophic collapse of our civilization per former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. On March 26, 2019, President Trump issued an executive order to assess the risks of such an attack. President Biden rescinded the executive order on January 20, 2021, his first day in office. For more on EMP access www.learningwithharley.com/6-electromagnetic-pulse-EMP.html
The second potential technology attack is a Cyber Attack, many small ones of which we have already experienced. A 2016 FBI report estimates that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has more than 30,000 military cyber spies dedicated to such hacking.
Problem Definition #4: THE INTERNAL WAR: VALUES AND DIVISION WITHIN
Our nation grew with a set of values shaped by Christian and Jewish faiths – the Ten Commandments, Golden Rule, and the teachings of the Bible and Torah – plus a set of laws shaped by British Common Law. As people immigrated to our country they adopted these values, learned English, and over time we became a melting pot of many faiths, ethnicities, and customs. Our Constitution bound the citizenry together around these values except for one: Slavery.
The Civil War was fought over this issue which resulted in the freeing of slaves. However, the Democratic Party led by President Andrew Johnson (following the assignation of President Abraham Lincoln) disavowed the Reconstruction agreement put in place at the end of the war and implemented his own Presidential Reconstruction. This policy included Black Codes which many southern states expanded to deprive the “freedmen” of their civil liberties. This set of racial values continued for about 100 years backed by Southern Dixiecrat Democrats. The associated discrimination was particularly strong in the southeast portion of the country.
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 sought to ensure civil rights for all and end discriminatory actions. This Act was passed with a vote of 290 – 130 in the House of Representatives (152 to 96 by Democrats and 138 to 34 by Republicans) and 73 – 27 in the Senate (44 to 23 by Democrats and 27 to 6 by Republicans). Significant progress was made on civil rights for Blacks and other minorities from 1964 to the early 2000s. Since that time (roughly 20 years) we are seemingly fighting a third battle over racial civil rights with the advent of the Woke ideology forged by the progressive part of the Democratic Party. Some of the aspects of the Woke ideology includes:
Problem Definition #5: THE INTERNAL WAR: POLITICAL INSTABILITY
The continual instability of our Federal Government is another trend of decline and polarization. This is the result of two things. First, our major national institutions are ignoring their missions and have been captured by bureaucratic and elite interests, including corporate America and the fourth branch of government – the bureaucratic state. Second, is the tension and differences between our two political parties, some in direct conflict with the Constitution, Rule of Law, and attempting to ignore or marginalize the checks and balances among the three branches of government, with the help of the bureaucrats and elites. These two unfortunate aspects of our current government translate to both elected and unelected entities assuming control over what they view as their obligation to “right” the country from their point of view without any accountability or authority in doing so. This results in constant tension, confusion, frustration, disregard for the will of the people, and lack of fairness. It also results in what is seemingly a two-tiered system of justice. These causes of instability can be evidenced in the following examples:
It is interesting to look at these examples collectively. In most cases the cause of the tension is Democrat action followed by Republican reaction. Many contend these are different efforts for the Democratic Party to seize more political control in an effort to eventually achieve absolute one-party control. Their effort to do so, is labeled as the in adoption of Marxist ideology and greater authoritarianism.
Money is also impacting political instability. The scale and power of the U.S. lobby is extraordinary, particularly in finance, health, and telecommunications/media to the point they are writing laws and regulations in concert with the federal bureaucracy (“the Swamp”) for Congressional approval. According to Victor Davis Hanson in his book Dying Citizen, “The permanent bureaucracy has overwhelmed the office of the presidency. That all-powerful office often lacks sufficient knowledge to control the permanent legions deeply embedded within the state. Elected officials come and go. But the bureaucracy outlasts all, knows best, and so grows and breeds, often at the expense of the citizen. We are reaching a point where the bureaucratic elite believes that it can and should preempt any elected official who deems it dangerous. If the citizen, cannot elect officials to audit, control, and remove the unelected, then he has lost his sovereign power.”
Problem Definition #6: THE MILITARY WAR
CIVIL WAR POTENTIAL: If we are to have a Civil War in the U.S. it will most likely be along political lines. Historically, such wars emanate by a military coup and the amount of conflict is dependent on the amount and power of a resistant force. Here is a perspective by Marc Fisher of the Washington Post published on August 26, 2022:
CAPTURING THE WISDOM WE HAVE UNCOVERED
OVERVIEW & CONTEXT
Significant wisdom has been uncovered in the 14 segments of the series to date. So, I am pausing to catalog and review the wisdom we have garnered to date before proceeding. The review will be my interpretations and will involve no excerpts.
Great empires typically last about 250 years, give or take 100 years. Since 1600 they have included the Netherlands and its reserve currency the Guilder, the United Kingdom and its Pound, followed by the United States and the dollar.
The internal order and disorder cycle of great empires/superpowers is similar: Stage 1 – a new order begins with new leadership and consolidation of power; Stage 2 – a government bureaucracy is built and refined consisting of rules (laws), a governing system, including institutions and policies, and a financial system with a currency; Stage 3: peace and prosperity is achieved; Stage 4 – excessive spending and debt transpires with a widening of wealth and political gaps; Stage 5 – an advent of bad financial conditions and intense conflict erupts; Stage 6 – Civil War or Revolution breaks out.
The external order and disorder of empires/superpowers is very similar to the internal order and disorder cycle with one exception. International relations as opposed to internal relations are driven by raw power dynamics. This occurs if two countries have similar power and are unwilling to share that power the result is generally war. In such cases international law becomes mute and a fight ensues to see which power prevails. Then Stage 6 is a Major war.
Today China and India look to be in Stage 2 of the cycle and the U.S. and Europe are in Stage 5.
Countries in Stage 5 of the internal order and disorder cycle pray that a “strong leader” who can bring the country together emerges. A person who can reach out to the other side and involve them in the decision making to reshape the governing system, rules, and institutions in a way that the populace agrees is fair, works well, and meets the citizen’s needs via compromise. This is needed to avoid Stage 6 and a Civil War.
Countries in Stage 5 of the external order and disorder cycle pose a different problem. Since the greatest risk of a military war occurs when the military power of one superpower plus its allies matches that of another superpower power and their allies and the two have irreconcilable and existential differences. Then a single leader can’t bring them together. Then to avoid a military conflict either the differences have to be assuaged through negotiation and diplomacy or the strength of one becomes so overpowering that the other cedes before conflict.
In today’s world we can see two superpowers and their allies starting to form. One is China, with its allies being Russia, North Korea, and Iran. China is also seemingly trying to recruit Africa, South and Central America to its side via its Belt and Road initiative. The second is the United States and its NATO allies plus Japan, South Korea, and Australia. An outstanding question is with whom will India ally or will they remain neutral.
Ray Dalio the author who gave us the above cycle theories posits that the odds of the United States entering a Civil War in the next ten years is 30% and that of a major external war in the same time period is 50/50.
A major piece of wisdom was in segment 14 where Dalio posited that there are different power struggles or wars that go on before the shooting and killing erupts in a major Military war. These historically include a trade war, a technology war, a geopolitical war, a capital war, and internal struggles (war).
In a Civil war the power struggles (wars) are internal versus external, and the internal struggles result from differences in how to manage capital and geopolitical issues plus very strong opinions on internal policy and actions that are irreconcilable.
We have just finished nine segments determining how today’s conditions in the U.S. for the reasons the Roman Empire declined and failed. Can that analysis be transposed to of the different power struggles (wars) that Dalio posited for an external war. The answer is yes. Here is how:
- The segments: Divisions from Within, Weakening of Values, and Political Instability are all part of the Internal War we are fighting.
- The segments on Overspending and Economic Troubles defines the Capital War
- The segment on National Security fits with Geopolitical War we a struggling with.
- Weakening of Legions and Invasion of Foreigners are parts of a Military War if we fight it and certainly helps us determine how to prepare for such a conflict.
- Technology War – We are engaged is such a war today with China. However, technology was not a defining factor in the Roman Empires decline. I have separately developed excerpts on the technology issues which are attached to this segment as a pdf.
So, for the remainder of the series we will be analyzing these five power struggles (wars) currently occurring. The remaining segments in the series following this segment are focused on solutions to the problems defined by the wisdom we have garnered to date. To do so effectively, the problems require more definition. Such problem definitions follow for the capital war, the geopolitical war, the technology war, the internal war (a segment for values and divisions within and a second segment for political instability) and the military war. Thus, there are five wars with six problem definitions in that order which follow, all based on the wisdom garnered from the analysis of today’s situation in the U.S. for the eight Roman Empire reasons for failure.
Problem Definition #1: THE CAPITAL WAR
Government spending has exceeded revenues for each of the last 22 years. As a result, our national debt has increased from $5.6 trillion in 2001 to $33 trillion today or a 589% increase. Three long-term measurements of economic health -– debt-to-GDP ratio, interest bite (annual debt service-to-federal tax receipts), and government spending-to-GDP ratio –- indicates we are in trouble on all three which will become much worse by Congressional Budget Office projections.
This has led two rating agencies to downgrade the credit rating for the U.S. government. Having reduced creditworthiness results in less investors wanting to invest in loaning us money to finance our exorbitant debt. Being underfunded on the debt will likely result in “printing money” to meet the shortfall (i.e., loaning money to ourselves). This eventually lessens the value of the dollar on the global market which in turn reduces the use of the dollar for international trade which lessens the dollar’s use as the world’s reserve currency. Lessening the dollar’s use as reserve currency not only leads to increases in interest rates to finance our debt but importantly results in a loss of power to influence geopolitical aspects of the world.
Further, significant government overspending in 2021 and 2022 lead to inflation. To control inflation our central bank (the Federal Reserve) increased the Federal Funds rate by 5.25% with eight rate increases. This not only increased the country’s expenses by $1 trillion/year (an increase of 16.7%) but also the interest rates on all loans throughout the country. In its entirety we have a downward spiraling capital market that needs to be reversed.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that under current trends, the debt could easily reach 200% of GDP by the year 2050 and interest payments on the debt will take up nearly 40% of all federal revenues versus a good economic health target of below 15%.
The resolution to the problem is exacerbated by three things.
- Congressional funding by huge Omnibus Bills is so large with such short time periods to review it is almost impossible to provide much scrutiny to the spending. Further, the spending legislation is done separately from debt ceiling authorization, psychologically lessening the need to reduce spending.
- Adoption of Modern Monetary Theory in practice absolves the House of Representatives from any fiscal responsibility. The theory is interpreted that we don’t have to worry about the country’s debt because we can borrow all we want due to the fact that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. In effect, the theory’s application will lead us to lose reserve currency status for the dollar because of overspending.
- The hysteria surrounding Climate Change is clouding objective judgement. First, climate change is an unsettled science, so we don’t really understand the urgency. Second, the fix we are focused on – wind turbines and solar panels – cannot possibly do the job plus the $50 trillion required with such solutions is unaffordable. A combination of nuclear power plus natural gas to power our country might be able to do the job at a much lower cost, but no one is focused on it.
Problem Definition #2: THE GEOPOLITICAL WAR
As was the case in the Capital War problem definition, our geopolitical problems are and continue to be self-inflicted, meaning we have a chance to find solutions to fix them.
First Problem: (a) We outsourced most of our manufacturing to China and became a service economy. This was most evident during the pandemic when we could not manufacture preventive production products for our first responders and infected citizenry. (b) Supply chain bottlenecks became very apparent when we had scores of freighters sitting outside west coast ports and couldn’t get them unloaded and disbursed fast enough. (c) U.S. multinational corporations were quick to relocate their manufacturing processes to China in their greed to increase profits with cheap foreign labor. Now that the Chinese have reaped the benefits of our dollars and intellectual property, many of these companies are leaving China in search of other countries with cheap labor or in some cases returning their manufacturing to U.S. soil. (d) Abandoning any sort of obligation to America has resulted in the suffering of the American worker, the weakening of U.S. national security, and the transfer of significant intellectual property. Further China has gained a significant trade advantage and can hold us hostage in attaining critical supplies most particularly medicines and rare earths they uniquely control. (e) outsourcing our energy.
Second Problem: Our political clout was weakened with the humiliating and horrific withdrawal from Afghanistan, followed by the lack of attention to the successfully negotiated Abraham Accords. As a result, China filled the geopolitical void in the Middle East successfully brokering a treaty alliance between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now China is a power player in the Middle East replacing the U.S. who has held that distinction for three quarters of a century. A similar outcome is evident in Brazil who now has an exclusive trade deal with China, with a monetary agreement to use their respective currency’s thus turning their back on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Our geopolitical clout will be further weakened given the recent downgrade of the country’s credit worthiness.
Third Problem: As Senator Marco Rubio points out, “Our reliance on China – financial and otherwise – is the direct result of decades of bad U.S. policy. Not only did we help and enable them to enter the World Trade Organization, but China successfully exploited American ambition – ambition to open markets, ambition to spread democracy, ambition to make obscene amounts of money – and now we are paying the price.” China now has an explicit goal of becoming the world’s only superpower by 2049. The only way that can be averted is if China implodes or the United States stops them.
Fourth Problem: We are showing extreme weakness when the only thing the Chinese People’s Party respects is solid, consistent strength. We have been very passive if not neglectful by not confronting them for the millions of deaths from the lab-leaked Covid-19 virus or the thousands of fentanyl deaths.
Fifth Problem: How could the rest of the world possibly look favorably to us to help protect them when we don’t even have the resolve to protect ourselves from the travesties of our open southern border. We have scores of people coming in unvetted, unvaccinated, uneducated with valid expectations of being housed, fed, and clothed with free medical care and schooling. The numbers are so significant that Democratic governors and mayors are screaming at the Biden administration for help and relief. The pleas are falling on deaf ears, so state and local officials are having to shave their budgets to free up funds for the illegals care, including budget cuts for already traumatized cops. This open border policy is resulting in a proliferation of fentanyl deaths, sex trafficking, cartel embolden, and terrorists entering our country.
In its entirety it is a geopolitical mess if not a travesty.
Problem Definition #3: THE TECHNOLOGY WAR
Effective application of new technologies will determine the winner of the technology war and quite possibly the overall conflict as it has in the past. Artificial Intelligence is undoubtedly a technology which has capability to dramatically change our lifestyle, prosperity, and global society like no other in history. The associated changes could both be positive or negative dependent on the choices the world makes in its application.
On the Positive Side: In healthcare AI can be used to rapidly analyze thousands of scientific articles for insights leading to breakthroughs in new drugs, treatment, or clinical processes. Wearables or implanted mechanisms can monitor an individual on a continual basis for changes and provide alerts to seek specific treatment faster than an individual can do it themselves.
In day to day living AI can power robots to do household chores, cook meals, or even provide companionship. AI can be utilized to provide us with driverless cars and trucks. In an AI smart home AI can determine menus for food, inventory your refrigerator and pantry, resulting in a grocery list that can be transmitted to a grocery store and be delivered to your house by self-guided drones.
From a military aspect, drones can be equipped with satellite imagery and AI-based vision and then flown as a squadron for an airborne attack on any enemy. Robots can become foot soldiers capable of fighting battles in any terrain in any weather conditions.
In education, AI can be used to accelerate learning from kindergarten to universities by personalizing instruction after AI has analyzed the student’s physical and mental health conditions and then developed an understanding of the individual’s learning habits.
These illustrations are only a starting point for the use of AI technology in a positive way.
On the Negative Side: Medical and educational algorithms could introduce bias based on race, gender, age, income, etc. Individual personal data can be captured and used to benefit others for profit or behavioral control. AI replacement of people doing physical and mental tasks could result in massive unemployment creating chaos in society as a whole. This could lead to government behavioral control as is being developed in China. From a 12/2021 Business Insider article:
The CCP has been constructing a moral ranking system for years that will monitor the behavior of the enormous population – and rank them all based on their “social credit.” Like private credit scores, a person’s social score can move up and down depending on their behavior. The exact methodology is a secret – but examples of infractions include bad driving, smoking in un-smoking areas, buying too many video games, wasting money on frivolous purchases and posting on social media.
The Challenge of the Technology War is to gain the positives from the technology while minimizing the negatives plus accomplishing it faster and better than China, as we are the only two countries in the game. Additionally, protecting ourselves from a technological attack.
Meeting the Challenge: China and the United States are approaching AI development in very different ways. China began in 1980 with a long-term strategy for world domination, incorporating AI as a fundamental element of the strategy. Their approach is top-down management with set goals for the state to accomplish. In doing so, the state directs Chinese technology enterprise.
The U.S. is approaching the war without a grand strategy. We are relying on six big American tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM, and Apple) to develop and apply AI within the country with the philosophy that a free-market approach will win. So, gaining the positives and minimizing the negative and doing both faster than the Chinese is in the hands of the six Big Tech firms. The only recent action on the part of our government was identifying Vice President Kamala Harris as the Czar of AI. From such action or lack thereof, I conclude they don’t believe we are in a technology war.
With respect to protecting our country from a technological attack, two such potentials have been identified. The first is an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack on our electricity grids. Such attacks are relatively easy to do on a regional or national basis. ISIS, al-Qaeda, or Syria could enact a regional attack. A national attack is a bit more complicated, but China or Russia could enact such an attack today and North Korea and Iran are not too far behind in having the same capability. Such an attack could result in a total loss of electricity throughout the country for at least a year per the EMP Commission and would lead to a catastrophic collapse of our civilization per former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. On March 26, 2019, President Trump issued an executive order to assess the risks of such an attack. President Biden rescinded the executive order on January 20, 2021, his first day in office. For more on EMP access www.learningwithharley.com/6-electromagnetic-pulse-EMP.html
The second potential technology attack is a Cyber Attack, many small ones of which we have already experienced. A 2016 FBI report estimates that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has more than 30,000 military cyber spies dedicated to such hacking.
Problem Definition #4: THE INTERNAL WAR: VALUES AND DIVISION WITHIN
Our nation grew with a set of values shaped by Christian and Jewish faiths – the Ten Commandments, Golden Rule, and the teachings of the Bible and Torah – plus a set of laws shaped by British Common Law. As people immigrated to our country they adopted these values, learned English, and over time we became a melting pot of many faiths, ethnicities, and customs. Our Constitution bound the citizenry together around these values except for one: Slavery.
The Civil War was fought over this issue which resulted in the freeing of slaves. However, the Democratic Party led by President Andrew Johnson (following the assignation of President Abraham Lincoln) disavowed the Reconstruction agreement put in place at the end of the war and implemented his own Presidential Reconstruction. This policy included Black Codes which many southern states expanded to deprive the “freedmen” of their civil liberties. This set of racial values continued for about 100 years backed by Southern Dixiecrat Democrats. The associated discrimination was particularly strong in the southeast portion of the country.
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 sought to ensure civil rights for all and end discriminatory actions. This Act was passed with a vote of 290 – 130 in the House of Representatives (152 to 96 by Democrats and 138 to 34 by Republicans) and 73 – 27 in the Senate (44 to 23 by Democrats and 27 to 6 by Republicans). Significant progress was made on civil rights for Blacks and other minorities from 1964 to the early 2000s. Since that time (roughly 20 years) we are seemingly fighting a third battle over racial civil rights with the advent of the Woke ideology forged by the progressive part of the Democratic Party. Some of the aspects of the Woke ideology includes:
- Every institution in America is rooted in white supremacy; every institution is “structurally” or “institutionally” racist. It is white power that makes the laws, and it is violent white power that enforces these laws with guns and nightsticks. These institutions have to be torn down to the ground and rebuilt to eradicate the sins of such institutions.
- Our nation is made up of the oppressed and the oppressors on an individual basis. Even minor offenses on the part of the oppressors inflict profound damage to the oppressed. These “microaggressions” are brutal acts, are deeply wounding, and exhibit racism. Thus, the oppressors can be racist without intent. Therefore, silence by the oppressor provides the only protection to the oppressed.
- To achieve equality between the oppressed and oppressors, a hierarchy of victimhood has been established wherein you gain credibility based on the number of victim groups to which one belongs. Only those in the hierarchy can effectively judge racism. This hierarchy is also manifested by how you identify politically e.g., Democrat or Republican.
- Meritocracy (defined as developing and challenging the best and brightest toward opportunities where they can contribute the most to the collective societal good) is unfair because the outcome is one of privilege based on your skin color. Therefore, it has to be mitigated by equity (defined as racial justice for everybody who has not had the benefit of a system that has not served everybody) by seeking equal outcome for everyone – hence socialism. This replaces the historical value of providing equal opportunity for everyone.
- The traditional family – a father, mother, and children – is not serving society well, particularly children. They have been raised in a system that is evil, a repository of discrimination and bigotry, in a country founded and steeped in cruelty. Therefore, the state has to take a much larger role in our children’s education via teachers trained and subscribing to woke principles.
- Free speech is a public and private threat. It leads to people being offended and not feeling safe from people who disagree with them. People should have the right to be protected from unpleasant realities and ideas counter to the woke ideology. Therefore, we need to abandon free speech and invoke censorship by monitoring and canceling bad ideas for public consumption in the media, particularly on social media platforms.These are not concepts adopted by the majority of Americans, quite the opposite. But the advocates are so unified and intimidating that we as a society have moved from a “democracy of the majority” to the “tyranny of the minority.” As a result, our citizenry has rapidly moved from a unified “melting pot” dedicated to the good for America to a “mob of tribes” dedicated to tribal allegiance. Individualism is dying as a consequence. Further, wokeness has severely polarized us to the point of not talking about our differences from a values standpoint. Instead, all the rhetoric is from a victimhood perspective and is not to be questioned.
Problem Definition #5: THE INTERNAL WAR: POLITICAL INSTABILITY
The continual instability of our Federal Government is another trend of decline and polarization. This is the result of two things. First, our major national institutions are ignoring their missions and have been captured by bureaucratic and elite interests, including corporate America and the fourth branch of government – the bureaucratic state. Second, is the tension and differences between our two political parties, some in direct conflict with the Constitution, Rule of Law, and attempting to ignore or marginalize the checks and balances among the three branches of government, with the help of the bureaucrats and elites. These two unfortunate aspects of our current government translate to both elected and unelected entities assuming control over what they view as their obligation to “right” the country from their point of view without any accountability or authority in doing so. This results in constant tension, confusion, frustration, disregard for the will of the people, and lack of fairness. It also results in what is seemingly a two-tiered system of justice. These causes of instability can be evidenced in the following examples:
- Disregarding some of our liberties – free speech, due process, and right to own and bear arms. In December 2019 a Harris Poll Survey reported a vast majority of Americans – 92%-believed their rights were “under siege.”
- An open southern border
- Weaponization of Federal institutions – e.g., the IRS refusal to grant tax-exempt status to political opponent organizations (e.g., the Tea Party); the FBI investigations of the Trump campaign (e.g., Crossfire Hurricane)
- Soros Prosecutors
- Defunding and demonizing local police forces.
- Failure to provide protection for Supreme Court Justices
- Covid Mandates
- Police action or inaction for violent crime and riots (particularly those of a killing of a black man by a white cop)
- Attempts to move election laws from the states to the Federal Government
- Four Trump investigations and indictments on 91 counts and little investigation into the Biden Family alleged corruption.
- Public schools indoctrinating students, usurping parental rights.
It is interesting to look at these examples collectively. In most cases the cause of the tension is Democrat action followed by Republican reaction. Many contend these are different efforts for the Democratic Party to seize more political control in an effort to eventually achieve absolute one-party control. Their effort to do so, is labeled as the in adoption of Marxist ideology and greater authoritarianism.
Money is also impacting political instability. The scale and power of the U.S. lobby is extraordinary, particularly in finance, health, and telecommunications/media to the point they are writing laws and regulations in concert with the federal bureaucracy (“the Swamp”) for Congressional approval. According to Victor Davis Hanson in his book Dying Citizen, “The permanent bureaucracy has overwhelmed the office of the presidency. That all-powerful office often lacks sufficient knowledge to control the permanent legions deeply embedded within the state. Elected officials come and go. But the bureaucracy outlasts all, knows best, and so grows and breeds, often at the expense of the citizen. We are reaching a point where the bureaucratic elite believes that it can and should preempt any elected official who deems it dangerous. If the citizen, cannot elect officials to audit, control, and remove the unelected, then he has lost his sovereign power.”
Problem Definition #6: THE MILITARY WAR
CIVIL WAR POTENTIAL: If we are to have a Civil War in the U.S. it will most likely be along political lines. Historically, such wars emanate by a military coup and the amount of conflict is dependent on the amount and power of a resistant force. Here is a perspective by Marc Fisher of the Washington Post published on August 26, 2022:
This split over how seriously to take the threat of civil war is not just another example of America’s deep divisions: It has the great benefit of existing on a foundation of shared facts. Both set of analysts – those who say we’re heading toward civil strife and those who say that threat matrix is largely limited to lone rangers and small, disorganized groups whose dangerous but scattered acts don’t constitute a civil war – agree there is little chance of an organized violent attack on the government, or of local or state authorities taking up arms against their federal counterparts. But there remains a sharp divide over whether a mounting series of individual and small group attacks could add up to a warlike conflict that destabilizes the country.
U.S. – CHINA CONFLICT POTENTIAL: If there is to be major external war it is more likely to be between China and its Allies – Russia, Iran, North Korea – and the U.S. and its allies – NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia.
China has signaled such an intent with its National Security Strategy which states as goals: perpetuate CCP rule, maintain domestic security, sustain economic growth and development, defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity (which includes Taiwan and the South China Seas), secure China’s status as a great power, and become the World’s only superpower by 2049.
These actions indicate that China is moving on the strategy – significant military buildup, the Road and Belt initiative, construction of military islands in the South China Sea, creation of ports throughout the world that could be converted to miliary ports, and the creation of over 27 bases of different kinds in our hemisphere. They have developed new innovative military technologies like hypersonic missiles and funded the largest navy on the face of the Earth.
A military comparison between the U.S. and China shows China with the edge on manpower, land power, naval power, and financials. The U.S. has the edge on airpower, natural resources, logistics and geography. China’s military power is trending upward where our trend is decline. Annually the Heritage Foundation analyzes the strength of our armed forces on a scale of very weak, weak, marginal, strong, and very strong. Their most recent rating is: Marine Corps – strong, Army – marginal, Navy –weak, Air Force – very weak, and Space Force – weak.
Considering the present internal strife in our country, one has to conclude that as a society we are not prepared for an external war. Further, our military is struggling with recruitment, standards, and physical fitness in its ranks. Much of this is the result of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) mandates by our commander in chief. One has to wonder if there is any place in our country where you want meritocracy more than in our military.
Additionally, a substantial portion of military monetary allocations are being used to meet climate change initiatives versus military equipment. Simultaneously, we are sending substantial equipment to Ukraine thus depleting our military armament inventory. Net, we are not in a good position to defend ourselves.
Adding to that, our internal war has weakened the nation’s police forces particularly where defunding the police movements are in play. Further the denigration and demeaning of the “men in blue” has accelerated retirements and significantly impacted the ability to attract new recruits. Net, our police forces are under-sourced and undertrained.
CONCLUSION
We are witnessing the collapse of our country. The evidence is the implementation of the Far Left’s ideological revolution. Their objective: Gain Absolute Power to Achieve Equity.
NEXT
The next six segments will focus on fashioning solutions to each of the above six problem definitions. The respective problem definition will be repeated at the start of each of the six segments.
The unabbreviated version of the above can be found in the pdf document below.
China has signaled such an intent with its National Security Strategy which states as goals: perpetuate CCP rule, maintain domestic security, sustain economic growth and development, defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity (which includes Taiwan and the South China Seas), secure China’s status as a great power, and become the World’s only superpower by 2049.
These actions indicate that China is moving on the strategy – significant military buildup, the Road and Belt initiative, construction of military islands in the South China Sea, creation of ports throughout the world that could be converted to miliary ports, and the creation of over 27 bases of different kinds in our hemisphere. They have developed new innovative military technologies like hypersonic missiles and funded the largest navy on the face of the Earth.
A military comparison between the U.S. and China shows China with the edge on manpower, land power, naval power, and financials. The U.S. has the edge on airpower, natural resources, logistics and geography. China’s military power is trending upward where our trend is decline. Annually the Heritage Foundation analyzes the strength of our armed forces on a scale of very weak, weak, marginal, strong, and very strong. Their most recent rating is: Marine Corps – strong, Army – marginal, Navy –weak, Air Force – very weak, and Space Force – weak.
Considering the present internal strife in our country, one has to conclude that as a society we are not prepared for an external war. Further, our military is struggling with recruitment, standards, and physical fitness in its ranks. Much of this is the result of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) mandates by our commander in chief. One has to wonder if there is any place in our country where you want meritocracy more than in our military.
Additionally, a substantial portion of military monetary allocations are being used to meet climate change initiatives versus military equipment. Simultaneously, we are sending substantial equipment to Ukraine thus depleting our military armament inventory. Net, we are not in a good position to defend ourselves.
Adding to that, our internal war has weakened the nation’s police forces particularly where defunding the police movements are in play. Further the denigration and demeaning of the “men in blue” has accelerated retirements and significantly impacted the ability to attract new recruits. Net, our police forces are under-sourced and undertrained.
CONCLUSION
We are witnessing the collapse of our country. The evidence is the implementation of the Far Left’s ideological revolution. Their objective: Gain Absolute Power to Achieve Equity.
NEXT
The next six segments will focus on fashioning solutions to each of the above six problem definitions. The respective problem definition will be repeated at the start of each of the six segments.
The unabbreviated version of the above can be found in the pdf document below.
| america_15l_future_technnology_--_segment_15.pdf |