Fall 2021
Dear Friends and Family,
Dr. Kai-Fu Lee was not represented in the four AI scenarios presented in Segments 13 and 14. This segment provides his perspectives on how global society should be reformed in the next 20 years to maximize AI economic and social benefits and minimize the potential societal downsides.
His problem definition is similar to that in the previous four scenarios, but differently than the others he then focuses on what artificial intelligence cannot do in its applications. From there he utilizes the famous “Maslow Hierarchy of Needs” to suggest how happiness is attained and how AI can assist in its measurement. He finishes with his vision for the “Age of Plenitude” wherein money is not needed, its use discontinued, and the institution of a “currency” that measures and rewards empathy and compassion for others. A major theme is to avoid creating a “useless class” – happy morons, if you will.
My Major Series Takeaway:
How to utilize the human time freed by artificial intelligence (through job loss and elimination of physical routine chores) is the AI future societal problem based on my takeaways from the previous AI segments. Dr. Lee postulates that directing that time towards helping others is the answer (as opposed to some other solutions offered in the scenarios such as depopulation). I think Lee is on the right track, but I question his presented plan’s feasibility. Formulate your opinion after reading the excerpts.
Next: This concludes the Big Tech & AI Series. There is a Postscript. It is focused on my views on the threats facing our country and how our priorities need to be altered based on the learning from the five series in the blog to date.
The next series will be on the COVID – 19 Pandemic, something we all lived through. Now I want to research it and learn about it. I hope you might as well.
Happy Learning,
Harley
Dear Friends and Family,
Dr. Kai-Fu Lee was not represented in the four AI scenarios presented in Segments 13 and 14. This segment provides his perspectives on how global society should be reformed in the next 20 years to maximize AI economic and social benefits and minimize the potential societal downsides.
His problem definition is similar to that in the previous four scenarios, but differently than the others he then focuses on what artificial intelligence cannot do in its applications. From there he utilizes the famous “Maslow Hierarchy of Needs” to suggest how happiness is attained and how AI can assist in its measurement. He finishes with his vision for the “Age of Plenitude” wherein money is not needed, its use discontinued, and the institution of a “currency” that measures and rewards empathy and compassion for others. A major theme is to avoid creating a “useless class” – happy morons, if you will.
My Major Series Takeaway:
How to utilize the human time freed by artificial intelligence (through job loss and elimination of physical routine chores) is the AI future societal problem based on my takeaways from the previous AI segments. Dr. Lee postulates that directing that time towards helping others is the answer (as opposed to some other solutions offered in the scenarios such as depopulation). I think Lee is on the right track, but I question his presented plan’s feasibility. Formulate your opinion after reading the excerpts.
Next: This concludes the Big Tech & AI Series. There is a Postscript. It is focused on my views on the threats facing our country and how our priorities need to be altered based on the learning from the five series in the blog to date.
The next series will be on the COVID – 19 Pandemic, something we all lived through. Now I want to research it and learn about it. I hope you might as well.
Happy Learning,
Harley
BIG TECH & AI – SEGMENT 16
A DIFFERENT SOCIAL OUTCOME VIEW – EXCERPTS
All the excerpts in this segment are from AI 2041 by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan (2021)
THE PROBLEM: In AI Superpowers I estimated that about 40% of our jobs could be accomplished by AI and automation technologies by 2033. While AI displacement is gradual, eventually it will also be total. Optimists argue that productivity gains from new technology almost always produce economic benefits and that more growth and prosperity always means more jobs. But AI and automation differ from other technologies. AI is an omni-use technology that will drive changes across hundreds of industries and millions of tasks simultaneously, both cognitive and physical. While most technologies were job creators and job destroyers at the same time the explicit goal of AI is to take over human tasks, thereby decimating jobs.
Soaring unemployment numbers are just a small part of the problem. A growing pool of unemployed workers will compete for an ever-shrinking number of jobs, driving down wages. Wealth inequality will go from bad to worse, as AI algorithms destroy millions of human jobs, while at the same time turning the tech titans who harness these new technologies into billionaires in record time. Many of the free market’s self-correcting mechanisms espoused by Adam Smith will break down in an AI economy. Left unchecked, AI in the 21st century may bring about anew caste system, with a plutocratic AI elite at the top, followed by a relatively small subset of workers with complex jobs that involve wide-ranging skill sets and large amounts of strategy and planning, creatives (many of them low paid), and the largest contingent: the powerless struggling masses.
Even more problematic than the loss of jobs will be the loss of meaning. The work ethic born out of the Industrial Revolution has instilled in many of us the idea that careers should be at the center of how we derive meaning from our lives. In the coming years, people will watch algorithms and robots easily outmaneuver them at tasks they’ve spent a lifetime mastering. Young people who grew up dreaming of entering certain professions may have their hopes thwarted. This will lead to a crushing feeling of futility and obsolescence, paving the way for increased levels of substance abuse, depression and suicide. Even worse, it will lead people to question their own worth and what it means to be human. It’s a bleak picture. So, what can we do about it?
THE KEY QUESTION: WHAT CAN AI NOT DO? In order to help guide people through AI displacement, we need to first understand what kinds of capabilities and tasks AI cannot do. There are three capabilities where I see AI falling short, and that AI will likely still struggle to master even after 2041.
What does this mean for the future of jobs?
TOWARD AN AI ECONOMY AND A NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT: One thing is clear. We will need to retrain a massive number of displaced workers. We need to raise an astronomical amount of money to fund this transition. We need to redefine the work ethic of society, entitlements for citizens, responsibilities for corporations, and the role of government. In short, we need a new social contract. We need to share our experiences and plot a way forward globally, where new technologies are balanced by new socioeconomic institutions. AI will liberate us from routine work, give us an opportunity to follow our hearts, and push us into thinking more deeply about what really makes us human.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND HAPPINESS: Can AI optimize our happiness? Setting aside AI for the moment, let’s ask the most basic question, what does happiness mean anyway? In 1943 Abraham Maslow published a seminal paper “A Theory of Human Motivation,” which describes what is now known as “Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.” This theory is usually illustrated as a pyramid, which describes human needs from the most basic to the most advanced level. Each lower-level need must be fulfilled in order to move toward a higher-level need. The levels are:
A DIFFERENT SOCIAL OUTCOME VIEW – EXCERPTS
All the excerpts in this segment are from AI 2041 by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan (2021)
THE PROBLEM: In AI Superpowers I estimated that about 40% of our jobs could be accomplished by AI and automation technologies by 2033. While AI displacement is gradual, eventually it will also be total. Optimists argue that productivity gains from new technology almost always produce economic benefits and that more growth and prosperity always means more jobs. But AI and automation differ from other technologies. AI is an omni-use technology that will drive changes across hundreds of industries and millions of tasks simultaneously, both cognitive and physical. While most technologies were job creators and job destroyers at the same time the explicit goal of AI is to take over human tasks, thereby decimating jobs.
Soaring unemployment numbers are just a small part of the problem. A growing pool of unemployed workers will compete for an ever-shrinking number of jobs, driving down wages. Wealth inequality will go from bad to worse, as AI algorithms destroy millions of human jobs, while at the same time turning the tech titans who harness these new technologies into billionaires in record time. Many of the free market’s self-correcting mechanisms espoused by Adam Smith will break down in an AI economy. Left unchecked, AI in the 21st century may bring about anew caste system, with a plutocratic AI elite at the top, followed by a relatively small subset of workers with complex jobs that involve wide-ranging skill sets and large amounts of strategy and planning, creatives (many of them low paid), and the largest contingent: the powerless struggling masses.
Even more problematic than the loss of jobs will be the loss of meaning. The work ethic born out of the Industrial Revolution has instilled in many of us the idea that careers should be at the center of how we derive meaning from our lives. In the coming years, people will watch algorithms and robots easily outmaneuver them at tasks they’ve spent a lifetime mastering. Young people who grew up dreaming of entering certain professions may have their hopes thwarted. This will lead to a crushing feeling of futility and obsolescence, paving the way for increased levels of substance abuse, depression and suicide. Even worse, it will lead people to question their own worth and what it means to be human. It’s a bleak picture. So, what can we do about it?
THE KEY QUESTION: WHAT CAN AI NOT DO? In order to help guide people through AI displacement, we need to first understand what kinds of capabilities and tasks AI cannot do. There are three capabilities where I see AI falling short, and that AI will likely still struggle to master even after 2041.
- Creativity: AI cannot create, conceptualize, or plan strategically. While AI is great at optimizing for a narrow objective, it is unable to choose its own goals or to think creatively. Nor can AI think across domains or apply common sense.
- Empathy: AI cannot feel or interact with feelings like empathy and compassion. Therefore, AI cannot make another person feel understood and cared for. Even if AI improves in this area, it will be extremely difficult to get the technology to a place where humans feel comfortable interacting with robots in situations that call for care and empathy, or what we might also call “human-touch services.”
- Dexterity: AI and robotics cannot accomplish complex physical work that requires dexterity or precise hand-eye coordination. AI can’t deal with unknown and unstructured spaces, especially ones that is hasn’t observed.
What does this mean for the future of jobs?
- Jobs that are asocial and routine, such as telemarketers, insurance adjusters, loan officers, customer support, radiologists, visual inspectors, security guards, couriers, fast-food line chefs are likely to be taken over in their entirety.
- For jobs that are highly social, but routine, humans and AI would work together, each contributing expertise. For example, in the future classroom, AI could take care of grading routine homework and exams, while the human teacher would focus on being an empathetic mentor who teaches learning by doing, supervises group projects that develop emotional intelligence and provides personalized coaching.
- For jobs that are creative but asocial, human creativity will be amplified by AI tools. For example, a scientist can use AI tools to accelerate the speed of drug discovery.
- The jobs that require both creativity and social skills are ones where humans will shine, such a social worker, PR/marketing director, career counselor, nursing, youth group mentor, foster care provider, physical therapist, hair stylist, elderly home caretaker, entrepreneur, or dog trainer.
- Painter, sculptors, and photographers will use AI tools to compose, experiment with, and refine artwork. Novelists, journalists, and poets will use new technologies for research and composition.
TOWARD AN AI ECONOMY AND A NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT: One thing is clear. We will need to retrain a massive number of displaced workers. We need to raise an astronomical amount of money to fund this transition. We need to redefine the work ethic of society, entitlements for citizens, responsibilities for corporations, and the role of government. In short, we need a new social contract. We need to share our experiences and plot a way forward globally, where new technologies are balanced by new socioeconomic institutions. AI will liberate us from routine work, give us an opportunity to follow our hearts, and push us into thinking more deeply about what really makes us human.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND HAPPINESS: Can AI optimize our happiness? Setting aside AI for the moment, let’s ask the most basic question, what does happiness mean anyway? In 1943 Abraham Maslow published a seminal paper “A Theory of Human Motivation,” which describes what is now known as “Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.” This theory is usually illustrated as a pyramid, which describes human needs from the most basic to the most advanced level. Each lower-level need must be fulfilled in order to move toward a higher-level need. The levels are:
Today, many people feel material wealth is the most significant component of happiness. Material wealth is mostly related to the bottom two layers of the pyramid – where sustenance or financial security are ensured by material wealth. Some people even associate material wealth with higher-level needs like power, esteem, and sense of accomplishment. But interestingly, research suggests that chasing material wealth cannot produce sustained feeling of happiness. Maslow’s hierarchy states that once our material needs are satisfied, we will seek to belong, to love and be loved, to be respected and to be self-actualized. If society is governed by good leaders, government will take care of all the people, assuring them material sufficiency. By 2041, in wealthier societies, people will find that their definition of happiness is evolving, as people advance from basic and psychological needs to self-fulfillment needs.
Can AI Measure and Improve Our Happiness? AI’s ability to recognize human emotions already exceeds the average human, and this gap will grow much wider by 2041. By 2041, we will not gain a full understanding of what determines our state of mind, nor will we know how long-term happiness works. But by that time, AI’s ability to read human emotions should be quite advanced, well beyond human capabilities, and there should be prototypes that try to improve higher-level happiness.
DREAMING OF PLENITUDE:
The Renewable Energy Revolution: In addition to AI, we are on the cusp of another important technological revolution – renewable energy. Together, solar photovoltaic, wind power, and lithium-ion battery storage technologies will create the capability of replacing most if not all of our energy infrastructure with renewable clean energy. Think tank RethinkX estimates that with a $2 trillion investment through 2030, the cost of energy in the U.S. will drop to 3 cents per kilowatt-hour, less than one-quarter of today’s costs. By 2041, it should be even lower, as the prices of these three components continue to descend.
The Production Revolution: Robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, delivery, design, and marketing of most goods. Autonomous vehicles will take us anywhere at minimal cost and save us money by our not having to buy cars. AI service robots will do chores at home better than the best housekeeper. AI will take over all routine jobs and tasks, white-collar and blue-collar alike. AI works 24/7, does not get sick, does not complain, and does not need to be paid. AI will reduce the cost of most manufactured goods to a small increment over the cost of materials. AI will also provide excellent service from many routine white-collar jobs. AI assistants will guide our lives better than the very best human assistance. AI teachers will teach engaging classes tailored to each student. AI doctors will diagnose and cure patients better than human doctors. AI entertainment will be realistic and immersive, yet virtual and thus nearly free.
3D printers will enable sophisticated or customized goods to be produced at minimal cost. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that are put together like Lego blocks by robots, thus dramatically reducing housing costs. Just-in-time autonomous public transportation, including robo-buses, robo-taxis, and robo-scooters will take us anywhere without our having to wait. So, with nearly free energy, inexpensive materials, and AI-automated production, we will usher in the age of plenitude. The age of plentitude will arrive when most things are not longer scarce, can be produced for next to nothing, and -most important – are made available freely or cheaply to all people.
Economic Models for Scarcity: The father of modern economics, Adam Smith, theorized that by giving everyone the freedom to produce, exchange, and consume based on their self-interest, economies will naturally balance and continue to grow. Karl Marx argued that the increasing power of capital will invalidate Adam Smith’s theory, as it gives inordinate power to those who control capital, leading to inequality and exploitation of the working class. John Maynard Keynes shared the concert that “natural balance” will take to long but advocated using monetary policies to modulate the economy to increase demand and decrease unemployment. One thing all three theories have in common is the underlying assumption of scarcity. In the future, if the scarcity assumption is nullified, so would these economic models. What then is the economic model?
Money in the Age of Plenitude: If money is demolished because everything is becoming free, it will bring down many key pillars of our society along with it. We have been taught to accumulate money for centuries, in our pursuit of safety and survival. Money has become a status symbol that gives us respect as well as vanity. In “Dreaming of Plenitude” the plan has three components: the Basic Life Card (BLC), Moola, and, later, a program bought on by the citizen-led dream4futuremovement. The first is the BLC which you can think of as essentially universal basic needs services. Unlike universal basic income (UBI), the BLC gives holders credits that can be exchanged for services that fulfill basic needs as well as allow for a comfortable life. Unlike a UBI, BLC credits can be used only for food, water, shelter, transportation, communication, energy, clothing, healthcare, information, and entertainment. The BLC would provide for everyone the physiological and safety levels of the Maslow hierarchy, whether one has a job or not.
The second component of the plan, Moola, is a new “currency” intended to help some people move to the next level on the Maslow Hierarchy – love and belonging, as exemplified in caring, friendship, warmth, camaraderie, trust, and connection. Unlike money and BLC, love and belonging cannot be spent. Your Moola grows as your wristband listens and senses the emotional well-being of the people around you. Are you helping and caring about others? Are you strengthening your community and forming beneficial relationships? Powering Moola is an AI algorithm that scores people’s empathy and compassion, as demonstrated in their community service work and other interactions, and follows the premise that the more you spend, the more your have. The notion of a nonmonetary currency like Moola speaks to anticipated job displacement issues – as automation takes over routine tasks, the largest number of safe “jobs” will be service jobs that require human-to-human connection. Moola’s algorithm guides people to opportunities that help them apply their empathy and compassion, making them more eligible for good opportunities in the service sector.
The third and last component is to rethink how the program could encourage people to realize their dreams and potential. This last component clearly corresponds to the top of the Maslow hierarchy: self-actualization. While the specific ideas about the evolution of money are speculative, I hope I have convinced you that with plenitude, we need to design an inclusive new world. In a world transitioning into plenitude, we cannot simply assume everyone falls into the “useless class,” nor that everyone will strive for self-actualization. It is hoped that our future economic model will be both inclusive and aspirational, helping to elevate as many people as possible up the Maslow hierarchy.
THE STORY OF AI: A HAPPY ENDING? In AI 2041, we saw that AI will open the door to a radiant future for humanity. AI will create unbelievable wealth, amplify our capabilities through human-AI symbols, improve how we work, play, and communicate, liberate us from routine tasks, and usher us into the age of plenitude. At the same time, Ai will bring about myriad challenges and perils: AI biases, security risks, deepfakes, privacy infringements, autonomous weapons, and job displacements. These problems were not inflicted by AI, but by humans who use AI maliciously or carelessly.
If we believe we will become the “useless class” as AI’s capabilities expand, then we will obliterate any chance of reinventing ourselves. If we become complacent with the gifts of plenitude and stop enriching our minds and bonds with one another, then we will terminate the evolution of our own species. If we feel hopeless and capitulate as singularity draws near, then we will usher in a winter of despair, whether singularity arrives or not. On the other hand, if we are thankful for the liberation from routine work and from the fear of hunger and poverty, if we cherish our free will, and if we have faith that human-AI symbiosis is much greater than the sum of the two parts, then we will work to mold AI into a perfect complement to help us “boldly go where no one has gone before.” If we get the dance between artificial intelligence and human society right, it would unquestionably be the single greatest achievement in human history.
The unabbreviated version of the above can be found in the pdf document below.
Can AI Measure and Improve Our Happiness? AI’s ability to recognize human emotions already exceeds the average human, and this gap will grow much wider by 2041. By 2041, we will not gain a full understanding of what determines our state of mind, nor will we know how long-term happiness works. But by that time, AI’s ability to read human emotions should be quite advanced, well beyond human capabilities, and there should be prototypes that try to improve higher-level happiness.
DREAMING OF PLENITUDE:
The Renewable Energy Revolution: In addition to AI, we are on the cusp of another important technological revolution – renewable energy. Together, solar photovoltaic, wind power, and lithium-ion battery storage technologies will create the capability of replacing most if not all of our energy infrastructure with renewable clean energy. Think tank RethinkX estimates that with a $2 trillion investment through 2030, the cost of energy in the U.S. will drop to 3 cents per kilowatt-hour, less than one-quarter of today’s costs. By 2041, it should be even lower, as the prices of these three components continue to descend.
The Production Revolution: Robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, delivery, design, and marketing of most goods. Autonomous vehicles will take us anywhere at minimal cost and save us money by our not having to buy cars. AI service robots will do chores at home better than the best housekeeper. AI will take over all routine jobs and tasks, white-collar and blue-collar alike. AI works 24/7, does not get sick, does not complain, and does not need to be paid. AI will reduce the cost of most manufactured goods to a small increment over the cost of materials. AI will also provide excellent service from many routine white-collar jobs. AI assistants will guide our lives better than the very best human assistance. AI teachers will teach engaging classes tailored to each student. AI doctors will diagnose and cure patients better than human doctors. AI entertainment will be realistic and immersive, yet virtual and thus nearly free.
3D printers will enable sophisticated or customized goods to be produced at minimal cost. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that are put together like Lego blocks by robots, thus dramatically reducing housing costs. Just-in-time autonomous public transportation, including robo-buses, robo-taxis, and robo-scooters will take us anywhere without our having to wait. So, with nearly free energy, inexpensive materials, and AI-automated production, we will usher in the age of plenitude. The age of plentitude will arrive when most things are not longer scarce, can be produced for next to nothing, and -most important – are made available freely or cheaply to all people.
Economic Models for Scarcity: The father of modern economics, Adam Smith, theorized that by giving everyone the freedom to produce, exchange, and consume based on their self-interest, economies will naturally balance and continue to grow. Karl Marx argued that the increasing power of capital will invalidate Adam Smith’s theory, as it gives inordinate power to those who control capital, leading to inequality and exploitation of the working class. John Maynard Keynes shared the concert that “natural balance” will take to long but advocated using monetary policies to modulate the economy to increase demand and decrease unemployment. One thing all three theories have in common is the underlying assumption of scarcity. In the future, if the scarcity assumption is nullified, so would these economic models. What then is the economic model?
Money in the Age of Plenitude: If money is demolished because everything is becoming free, it will bring down many key pillars of our society along with it. We have been taught to accumulate money for centuries, in our pursuit of safety and survival. Money has become a status symbol that gives us respect as well as vanity. In “Dreaming of Plenitude” the plan has three components: the Basic Life Card (BLC), Moola, and, later, a program bought on by the citizen-led dream4futuremovement. The first is the BLC which you can think of as essentially universal basic needs services. Unlike universal basic income (UBI), the BLC gives holders credits that can be exchanged for services that fulfill basic needs as well as allow for a comfortable life. Unlike a UBI, BLC credits can be used only for food, water, shelter, transportation, communication, energy, clothing, healthcare, information, and entertainment. The BLC would provide for everyone the physiological and safety levels of the Maslow hierarchy, whether one has a job or not.
The second component of the plan, Moola, is a new “currency” intended to help some people move to the next level on the Maslow Hierarchy – love and belonging, as exemplified in caring, friendship, warmth, camaraderie, trust, and connection. Unlike money and BLC, love and belonging cannot be spent. Your Moola grows as your wristband listens and senses the emotional well-being of the people around you. Are you helping and caring about others? Are you strengthening your community and forming beneficial relationships? Powering Moola is an AI algorithm that scores people’s empathy and compassion, as demonstrated in their community service work and other interactions, and follows the premise that the more you spend, the more your have. The notion of a nonmonetary currency like Moola speaks to anticipated job displacement issues – as automation takes over routine tasks, the largest number of safe “jobs” will be service jobs that require human-to-human connection. Moola’s algorithm guides people to opportunities that help them apply their empathy and compassion, making them more eligible for good opportunities in the service sector.
The third and last component is to rethink how the program could encourage people to realize their dreams and potential. This last component clearly corresponds to the top of the Maslow hierarchy: self-actualization. While the specific ideas about the evolution of money are speculative, I hope I have convinced you that with plenitude, we need to design an inclusive new world. In a world transitioning into plenitude, we cannot simply assume everyone falls into the “useless class,” nor that everyone will strive for self-actualization. It is hoped that our future economic model will be both inclusive and aspirational, helping to elevate as many people as possible up the Maslow hierarchy.
THE STORY OF AI: A HAPPY ENDING? In AI 2041, we saw that AI will open the door to a radiant future for humanity. AI will create unbelievable wealth, amplify our capabilities through human-AI symbols, improve how we work, play, and communicate, liberate us from routine tasks, and usher us into the age of plenitude. At the same time, Ai will bring about myriad challenges and perils: AI biases, security risks, deepfakes, privacy infringements, autonomous weapons, and job displacements. These problems were not inflicted by AI, but by humans who use AI maliciously or carelessly.
If we believe we will become the “useless class” as AI’s capabilities expand, then we will obliterate any chance of reinventing ourselves. If we become complacent with the gifts of plenitude and stop enriching our minds and bonds with one another, then we will terminate the evolution of our own species. If we feel hopeless and capitulate as singularity draws near, then we will usher in a winter of despair, whether singularity arrives or not. On the other hand, if we are thankful for the liberation from routine work and from the fear of hunger and poverty, if we cherish our free will, and if we have faith that human-AI symbiosis is much greater than the sum of the two parts, then we will work to mold AI into a perfect complement to help us “boldly go where no one has gone before.” If we get the dance between artificial intelligence and human society right, it would unquestionably be the single greatest achievement in human history.
The unabbreviated version of the above can be found in the pdf document below.
| 16l_big_tech_16l_social_ourcome_view_--_segment_16.pdf |