December 12, 2023
Dear Friends and Family,
This is the last segment of the Seeking Wisdom for America series. It contains two items. First, is a brief recap of the entire series which follows. Second, is a counterpoint argument to the series which states the prophets of American Decline are Wrong. It can be found in the attached PDF and comes from an article from Foreign Affairs titled Why American Power Endures by G. John Ikenberry (11/01/2022).
As I reflected on the last segment – The Fourth Turning – I found it not only sobering but also frightening. Two thoughts of reflection stayed with me – it is only a prediction and predictions over such a period are seldom correct, but we have been caught by surprise twice before -- Pearl Harbor and 9/11.
My Conclusion: We need to be prepared for such a surprise. We wasted our collective vote in this regard in 2020 and not only did that result in four years of lost preparation, but as this series research shows we dug ourselves deeper in each of the five conflicts/wars in which we are currently engaged. We need to vote more wisely in 2024.
Happy Learning!!
Harley
Dear Friends and Family,
This is the last segment of the Seeking Wisdom for America series. It contains two items. First, is a brief recap of the entire series which follows. Second, is a counterpoint argument to the series which states the prophets of American Decline are Wrong. It can be found in the attached PDF and comes from an article from Foreign Affairs titled Why American Power Endures by G. John Ikenberry (11/01/2022).
As I reflected on the last segment – The Fourth Turning – I found it not only sobering but also frightening. Two thoughts of reflection stayed with me – it is only a prediction and predictions over such a period are seldom correct, but we have been caught by surprise twice before -- Pearl Harbor and 9/11.
My Conclusion: We need to be prepared for such a surprise. We wasted our collective vote in this regard in 2020 and not only did that result in four years of lost preparation, but as this series research shows we dug ourselves deeper in each of the five conflicts/wars in which we are currently engaged. We need to vote more wisely in 2024.
Happy Learning!!
Harley
SEEKING WISDOM FOR AMERICA – SEGMENT 23
RECAP OF ENTIRE SERIES
THE BEGINNING
The Seeking Wisdom for America series commenced with a question: Is America in Decline?
We learned of Ray Dalio’s study of modern empires/superpowers beginning with the Dutch (1625 – 1795), the British (1700 – 1945), the United States (1776 – present), and China (1949 – present). Dalio’s study showed evidence of a consistent pattern to a cycle: A rise to power (Stages 1 & 2), similar elements at the top of their power (Stages 3 & 4), their decline (Stage 5), and their fall (Stage 6). The fall is accompanied by a major war historically. He discerned that today’s America is in Stage 5 – a state of decline and China’s was in Stage 2 – rising power.
Next, we looked at the reasons underpinning the fall of the Roman Empire: Division from Within, Weakening of Values, Political Instability, Overspending, Economic Troubles, National Security Issues, Weakening of Legions, and Invasion of Foreigners. We analyzed these eight causes for the fall of the Roman Empire in some depth relative to today’s conditions in America. These eight analyses (nine segments) confirmed Dalio’s two conclusions:
That led us to catalog the wisdom we garnered in the analyses of the Roman Empire reasons for failure and transcribed them into problem definitions for the five conflicts/wars which historically preclude armed conflict. Our hope was the problem definitions would lead us to specific solutions tailored to specific problems which if enacted would result in the avoidance of armed conflict and ultimately the fall of America.
The rest of this recap will provide a brief synopsis of the problem definitions and potential solutions for each of these five conflicts/wars.
THE CAPITAL WAR
Problem Definition: Government spending has exceeded revenues for each of the last 22 years. As a result, our national debt has soared to $33+ trillion. This trend is unsustainable as two credit downgrades by International Credit Agencies have warned. These were the first such downgrades in the nation’s history. Continuance will lessen the value of the dollar on international markets and could result in the dollar’s use as a reserve currency. This would lead to significant economic and national security implications and would greatly endanger America’s status in the world.
This trend intensified in 2021 and 2022 as significant government spending led to a 40-year high inflation rate. To tame inflation, the Federal Reserve increased federal fund interest rates to 5.25%. This added an additional $1 trillion/year of annual interest payments to continue financing our huge debt. As a result, we face potential downward spiraling in the world’s capital markets.
The excess spending was exacerbated by the use of huge Omnibus Bills in Congress, the adoption of Modern Monetary Theory by the Democratic Party, and the hysteria and lack of objective thinking on Climate Change spending.
Potential Solution: First, accelerate growth to achieve a 4% to 5% increase in GDP. This would entail leveraging our energy producing natural resources versus limiting them as has been the policy of the current administration.
Second, achieve reduced government spending by reforming the appropriation process. The first reform should be a movement from large Omnibus bills to much smaller, targeted bills. Such bills should be designated either as operational bills or investment bills as is done in most U.S. businesses. Further the bills should be fashioned and described in brief crisp, targeted, explanatory, and justification language (a very few pages) versus the actual book length legalistic complete bill that the bureaucrats publish in the Federal Register. These three changes will prevent wasted “pork” being in the bill and will provide clear understanding of the appropriation request to facilitate debate and individual knowledgeable decision-making.
Both of these solutions are required.
THE GEOPOLITICAL WAR
Problem Definition:
We have become too reliant on China:
Our southern border is open costing local and state administrations significant unbudgeted dollars to house, feed, clothe, and provide medical and educational services to the thousands of unvetted, unvaccinated, and limitedly educated illegal immigrants flowing into the country. Further, the policy is resulting in proliferation of fentanyl deaths, sex trafficking, embolden cartels, and terrorists entering our country.
Potential Solutions in Priority Order:
THE TECHNOLOGY WAR
Problem Definition: Effective application of new technologies will determine the winner of the technology war and quite possibly the overall conflict as it has in the past. Artificial Intelligence is undoubtedly a technology which has capability to dramatically change our lifestyle, prosperity, and global society like no other in history. The associated changes could both be positive or negative dependent on the choices the world makes in its application.
On the positive side significant breakthroughs in healthcare, day-to-day living, military equipment, and education can easily be obtained and that is only the start of potential application.
On the negative side, AI can introduce biases to the country’s thought processes, manipulate personal data for the benefit of others, replace people leading to significant unemployment, use its power to further political agendas to the extent of controlling individual behavior as is the case with China’s social credit system.
China and the United States are approaching AI development in very different ways. China began in 1980 with a long-term strategy for world domination, incorporating AI as a fundamental element of the strategy. Their approach is top-down management with set goals for the state to accomplish. In doing so, the state directs Chinese technology enterprise.
The U.S. is approaching the technology war without a grand strategy. We are relying on six big American tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM, and Apple) to develop and apply AI within the country with the philosophy that a free-market approach will win. So, gaining the positives and minimizing the negatives and doing both faster that the Chinese is currently in the hands of the six Big Tech firms.
To date, all the current administration has done is develop regulations on AI’s use which is tied to perception of how the negatives will come forth. The regulations could very well “miss the mark” and instead regulate productive AI efforts which negate much of AI’s promise.
Potential Solution: One would think based on our history in the previous two Industrial Revolutions in the World followed by seizing control of the Information Age, that we would have supremacy in this Technology War we are currently engaged in. But the exact opposite seems to be occurring. Why? In my view, it is because our leadership doesn’t think it is important – that China is a strong competitor but no big threat and certainly not an enemy, therefore we are not in a technology war, so substantial effort in this regard is not needed. As a result, China is considerably ahead of us in this technology.
Therefore, the first solution step is a change in leadership, to people who recognize we are in a technology war, and we need to win it if we are going to withstand an economic and military takeover by the China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea coalition.
The second step is to get government and our technology private enterprise companies committed to working together to win the technology war. This is a must, but from my research, little is happening in this regard, and it is critical. Until it happens our success is limited. Once, the U.S. government and U.S. technology companies start working together against an objective of winning the technology war with a set of developmental rules to gain the positives from AI while minimizing the negatives we stand a good chance of winning. But this is flat not happening right now given the priorities of the current administration.
THE INTERNAL WAR: POLITICAL INSTABILITY
Problem Definition: The continual instability of our Federal Government is the result of two things. First, our major national institutions are ignoring their missions and have been captured by bureaucratic and elite interests, including corporate America and the fourth branch of government – the bureaucratic state. Second, is the tension and differences between our two political parties, some in direct conflict with the Constitution, Rule of Law, and attempting to ignore or marginalize the checks and balances among the three branches of government, with the help of the bureaucrats and elites. These two unfortunate aspects of our current government translate to both the elected and unelected entities assuming control over what they view as their obligation to “right” the country from their point of view without any accountability or authority in doing so. This results in constant tension, confusion, frustration, disregard for the will of the people and lack of fairness. It also results in what is seemingly a two-tiered system of justice.
Money is also impacting political instability. The scale and power of the U.S. lobby is extraordinary, particularly in finance, health, and telecommunications/media to the point they are writing laws and regulations in concert with the federal bureaucracy (the “Swamp”) for Congressional approval. According to Victor Davis Hanson in his book Dying Citizen,
RECAP OF ENTIRE SERIES
THE BEGINNING
The Seeking Wisdom for America series commenced with a question: Is America in Decline?
We learned of Ray Dalio’s study of modern empires/superpowers beginning with the Dutch (1625 – 1795), the British (1700 – 1945), the United States (1776 – present), and China (1949 – present). Dalio’s study showed evidence of a consistent pattern to a cycle: A rise to power (Stages 1 & 2), similar elements at the top of their power (Stages 3 & 4), their decline (Stage 5), and their fall (Stage 6). The fall is accompanied by a major war historically. He discerned that today’s America is in Stage 5 – a state of decline and China’s was in Stage 2 – rising power.
Next, we looked at the reasons underpinning the fall of the Roman Empire: Division from Within, Weakening of Values, Political Instability, Overspending, Economic Troubles, National Security Issues, Weakening of Legions, and Invasion of Foreigners. We analyzed these eight causes for the fall of the Roman Empire in some depth relative to today’s conditions in America. These eight analyses (nine segments) confirmed Dalio’s two conclusions:
- America is in a state of decline and if the trend continues history would indicate we will likely be in a major war within the next decade.
- China is an emerging world power and is close to being able to match the United States in military and economic power. Their desire is to replace us as the world’s superpower.
That led us to catalog the wisdom we garnered in the analyses of the Roman Empire reasons for failure and transcribed them into problem definitions for the five conflicts/wars which historically preclude armed conflict. Our hope was the problem definitions would lead us to specific solutions tailored to specific problems which if enacted would result in the avoidance of armed conflict and ultimately the fall of America.
The rest of this recap will provide a brief synopsis of the problem definitions and potential solutions for each of these five conflicts/wars.
THE CAPITAL WAR
Problem Definition: Government spending has exceeded revenues for each of the last 22 years. As a result, our national debt has soared to $33+ trillion. This trend is unsustainable as two credit downgrades by International Credit Agencies have warned. These were the first such downgrades in the nation’s history. Continuance will lessen the value of the dollar on international markets and could result in the dollar’s use as a reserve currency. This would lead to significant economic and national security implications and would greatly endanger America’s status in the world.
This trend intensified in 2021 and 2022 as significant government spending led to a 40-year high inflation rate. To tame inflation, the Federal Reserve increased federal fund interest rates to 5.25%. This added an additional $1 trillion/year of annual interest payments to continue financing our huge debt. As a result, we face potential downward spiraling in the world’s capital markets.
The excess spending was exacerbated by the use of huge Omnibus Bills in Congress, the adoption of Modern Monetary Theory by the Democratic Party, and the hysteria and lack of objective thinking on Climate Change spending.
Potential Solution: First, accelerate growth to achieve a 4% to 5% increase in GDP. This would entail leveraging our energy producing natural resources versus limiting them as has been the policy of the current administration.
Second, achieve reduced government spending by reforming the appropriation process. The first reform should be a movement from large Omnibus bills to much smaller, targeted bills. Such bills should be designated either as operational bills or investment bills as is done in most U.S. businesses. Further the bills should be fashioned and described in brief crisp, targeted, explanatory, and justification language (a very few pages) versus the actual book length legalistic complete bill that the bureaucrats publish in the Federal Register. These three changes will prevent wasted “pork” being in the bill and will provide clear understanding of the appropriation request to facilitate debate and individual knowledgeable decision-making.
Both of these solutions are required.
THE GEOPOLITICAL WAR
Problem Definition:
We have become too reliant on China:
- Economically via both the production and delivery of goods (supply chain). This is particularly grim for medicines and electronic components requiring rare earths,
- Financially via the profits generated in China by large U.S. corporations, and
- Socially via the loss of good paying manufacturing jobs in America that have been transferred to China because of cheap labor costs.
- The humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan.
- The lack of attention to further the peace agreements of the Abraham Accords
- The elimination of sanctions on Iran.
Our southern border is open costing local and state administrations significant unbudgeted dollars to house, feed, clothe, and provide medical and educational services to the thousands of unvetted, unvaccinated, and limitedly educated illegal immigrants flowing into the country. Further, the policy is resulting in proliferation of fentanyl deaths, sex trafficking, embolden cartels, and terrorists entering our country.
Potential Solutions in Priority Order:
- We need to develop an extensive alliance of democratic countries in the world with the objective of limiting China’s power principally by dampening their growth. This also includes starving China from gaining access to U.S. capital.
- To further develop that alliance into one that can effectively challenge the “Axis of Evil” (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) via a “Peace through Strength Policy.” Sound American economic growth is also needed so money to invest in our military available to achieve military equivalency or better than China.
- We need to decouple sourcing and manufacturing from China by rebuilding American manufacturing and moving some of the dependent manufacturing to other democratic countries. This is particularly crucial for medicines and electronics.
- Securing our Southern border.
- Instituting a meritocracy-based immigration system.
THE TECHNOLOGY WAR
Problem Definition: Effective application of new technologies will determine the winner of the technology war and quite possibly the overall conflict as it has in the past. Artificial Intelligence is undoubtedly a technology which has capability to dramatically change our lifestyle, prosperity, and global society like no other in history. The associated changes could both be positive or negative dependent on the choices the world makes in its application.
On the positive side significant breakthroughs in healthcare, day-to-day living, military equipment, and education can easily be obtained and that is only the start of potential application.
On the negative side, AI can introduce biases to the country’s thought processes, manipulate personal data for the benefit of others, replace people leading to significant unemployment, use its power to further political agendas to the extent of controlling individual behavior as is the case with China’s social credit system.
China and the United States are approaching AI development in very different ways. China began in 1980 with a long-term strategy for world domination, incorporating AI as a fundamental element of the strategy. Their approach is top-down management with set goals for the state to accomplish. In doing so, the state directs Chinese technology enterprise.
The U.S. is approaching the technology war without a grand strategy. We are relying on six big American tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM, and Apple) to develop and apply AI within the country with the philosophy that a free-market approach will win. So, gaining the positives and minimizing the negatives and doing both faster that the Chinese is currently in the hands of the six Big Tech firms.
To date, all the current administration has done is develop regulations on AI’s use which is tied to perception of how the negatives will come forth. The regulations could very well “miss the mark” and instead regulate productive AI efforts which negate much of AI’s promise.
Potential Solution: One would think based on our history in the previous two Industrial Revolutions in the World followed by seizing control of the Information Age, that we would have supremacy in this Technology War we are currently engaged in. But the exact opposite seems to be occurring. Why? In my view, it is because our leadership doesn’t think it is important – that China is a strong competitor but no big threat and certainly not an enemy, therefore we are not in a technology war, so substantial effort in this regard is not needed. As a result, China is considerably ahead of us in this technology.
Therefore, the first solution step is a change in leadership, to people who recognize we are in a technology war, and we need to win it if we are going to withstand an economic and military takeover by the China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea coalition.
The second step is to get government and our technology private enterprise companies committed to working together to win the technology war. This is a must, but from my research, little is happening in this regard, and it is critical. Until it happens our success is limited. Once, the U.S. government and U.S. technology companies start working together against an objective of winning the technology war with a set of developmental rules to gain the positives from AI while minimizing the negatives we stand a good chance of winning. But this is flat not happening right now given the priorities of the current administration.
THE INTERNAL WAR: POLITICAL INSTABILITY
Problem Definition: The continual instability of our Federal Government is the result of two things. First, our major national institutions are ignoring their missions and have been captured by bureaucratic and elite interests, including corporate America and the fourth branch of government – the bureaucratic state. Second, is the tension and differences between our two political parties, some in direct conflict with the Constitution, Rule of Law, and attempting to ignore or marginalize the checks and balances among the three branches of government, with the help of the bureaucrats and elites. These two unfortunate aspects of our current government translate to both the elected and unelected entities assuming control over what they view as their obligation to “right” the country from their point of view without any accountability or authority in doing so. This results in constant tension, confusion, frustration, disregard for the will of the people and lack of fairness. It also results in what is seemingly a two-tiered system of justice.
Money is also impacting political instability. The scale and power of the U.S. lobby is extraordinary, particularly in finance, health, and telecommunications/media to the point they are writing laws and regulations in concert with the federal bureaucracy (the “Swamp”) for Congressional approval. According to Victor Davis Hanson in his book Dying Citizen,
The Permanent bureaucracy has overwhelmed the office of the presidency. That all-powerful office often lacks sufficient knowledge to control the permanent legions deeply embedded within the state. Elected officials come and go. But the bureaucracy outlasts all, knows best, and so grows and breeds, often at the expense of the citizen. We are reaching a point where the bureaucratic elite believes that it can and should preempt any elected official who deems it dangerous. If the citizen, cannot elect officials to audit, control, and remove the unelected, then he has lost his sovereign power.
Potential Solution: Government reform is desperately needed. We have elected officials not stepping up and making decisions their office calls for and we have unelected officials filling in making decisions they are not authorized to make. This calls for a significant change in leadership to get us back in balance both in the executive and legislative branches of the federal government. The following are examples of the types of actions that have to be taken.
- The administrative state has to stop making decisions for the executive branch. To accomplish this the House of Representatives must use the power of the purse to hold the administrative state accountable by cutting off funding for their agency if they go astray from their duties and usurp elected officials’ responsibilities. Further, the set the stage for such actions Schedule F needs to be implemented to recharter a significant number of federal employees developing policy to becoming at-will employees serving at the pleasure of the president. In doing so, if they go rouge the president should discharge them. This process should commence in the Department of Justice and Internal Revenue Service who have clearly participated in weaponizing their institutions to go after political opponents, to date without retribution.
- Corporate America also has to be brought under control, particularly with respect to “personal information protections,” censorship, and political advocacy. This needs to start with the squashing of ESG rules which can be achieved in large part by prohibiting federal pensions fund managers from using ESG criteria in making investment decisions, as was done in Florida.
- The administrative branch of government in concert with the judicial branch have to start insisting the executive branch uphold the rule of law and the Constitution. The tragedy of the southern border and the macerations surrounding student loan forgiveness are illustrations of elected officials not doing so. Whether this be done via lawsuits, public pressure, or the ballot box it must happen.
- In the Legislature pass a Stop Wrongs against Our Kids and Employees (WOKE) Act similar to the one enacted in Florida.
The current intent of the Convention of States effort is to begin such a government reform process. They are focusing on new amendments to institute term limits for Congress, limiting the power of Federal regulations by allowing Congressional oversight, plus fiscal constraints including a balanced budget. This will happen if they get two thirds of the States to support a convention to do so.
THE INTERNAL WAR: VALUES & DIVISION FROM WITHIN
Problem Definition: Significant progress was made on civil rights for Blacks and other minorities from 1964 to the early 2000s. Since that time (roughly 20 years) we are seemingly fighting another battle of civil rights with the advent of the Woke ideology forged by the progressive part of the Democratic Party. Some of the aspects of the Woke ideology includes:
- Every institution in America is rooted in white supremacy; every institution is “structurally” or “institutionally” racist. It is white power that makes the laws, and it is violent white power that enforces these laws with guns and nightsticks. These institutions have to be torn down to the ground and rebuilt to eradicate the sense of such institutions.
- Our nation is made up of the oppressed and the oppressors on an individual basis. Even minor offenses on the part of the oppressors inflict profound damage to the oppressed. These “microaggressions” are brutal acts, are deeply wounding, and exhibit racism. Thus, the oppressors can be racist without intent. Therefore, silence by the oppressor provides the only protection to the oppressed.
- To achieve equality between the oppressed and oppressors, a hierarchy of victimhood has been established wherein you gain credibility based on the number of victim groups to which one belongs. Only those in the hierarchy can effectively judge racism. This hierarchy is also manifested by how you identify politically, e.g., Democrat or Republican.
- Meritocracy (defined as developing and challenging the best and brightest toward opportunities where they can contribute the most to the collective societal good) is unfair because the outcome is one of privilege based on your skin color. Therefore, it has to be mitigated by equity (defined as racial justice for everybody who has not had the benefit of the system that has not served everybody) by seeking equal outcome for everyone—hence socialism. This replaces the historical value of providing equal opportunity for everyone.
- The traditional family – a father, mother, and children – is not serving society well, particularly children. They have been raised in a system that is evil, a repository of discrimination and bigotry, in a country founded and steeped in cruelty. Therefore, the state has to take a much larger role in our children ‘s education via teachers trained and subscribing to woke principles.
- Free speech is a public and private threat. It leads to people being offended and not feeling safe from people who disagree with them. People should have the right to be protected from unpleasant realities and ideas counter to the woke ideology. Therefore, we need to abandon free speech and invoke censorship by monitoring and canceling bad ideas for public consumption in the media, particularly on social media platforms.
Potential Solution: To move from the current “tyranny of the minority” to the “democracy of the majority” Americans need to be educated on the consequence of what we are facing as a country.
- First, if China becomes the world’s only superpower what will that mean for Americans? Undoubtedly, they would institute their social credit system so the CCP would have control over our society. How would that translate to discrimination and racism? It certainly would not lessen it. How would woke ideals be scored on the CCP’s social credit system. I doubt it would be positive.
- Second, who is going to stop China from instituting their social credit system? America in today’s form is the only hope for the democratic world to do so. So, for those advocating wokeism be careful of what you wish for.
- Equity and Tribalism or meritocracy and individualism?
- Education and Indoctrination via teacher union dictates or school choice?
- Censorship or Free Speech?
- Identity and Elite Rule or Unity and Democracy?
THE MILITARY WAR
Problem Definition: If there is to be a major external war it is more likely to be between China and its Allies – Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and the United States and its allies – NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia. India is a big player and its unknown if it will enter the fray and if so where.
China has signaled such an intent with its National Security Strategy which states as goals: perpetuate CCP rule, maintain domestic security, sustain economic growth and development, defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity (which includes Taiwan and the South China Seas), secure China’s status as a great power, and become the World’s only superpower by 2049.
China is moving on this strategy – significant military buildup, the Road and Belt initiative, construction of military islands in the South China Sea, creation of ports throughout the world that could be converted to military ports, and the creation of over 27 bases of different kinds in our hemisphere. They have developed new innovative military technologies like hypersonic missiles and funded the largest navy on the face of the earth.
A military comparison between the U.S. and China shows China with the edge on manpower, land power, naval power and financials. The U.S. has the edge on airpower, natural resources, logistics, and geography. China’s military power is trending upward where our trend is military decline. Annually the Heritage Foundation analyzes the strength of our armed forces. Their most recent rating is: Marine Corps – strong, Army -- marginal, Navy -- weak, Air Force – very weak, and Space Force – weak.
Further, our military is struggling with recruitment, standards, and physical fitness in its ranks. Much of this is the result of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) mandates by our Commander in Chief. One has to wonder if there is any place in our country where you want meritocracy more than in our military, but the inclusion of DEI is discarding it.
Additionally, a substantial portion of military allocations is being used to meet climate change initiatives versus military equipment.
Adding to that, our internal war has weakened the nation’s police forces particularly where defunding the police movements are in play. Further, the denigration and demeaning of the “men in blue” has accelerated retirements and significantly impacted the ability to attract new recruits. Net, our police forces are under-sourced and under trained.
Potential Solution: China will define the 21st century, for Americans and for the world – not climate change, not the Left’s social justice system or their woke ideology. China is the world’s gravest threat.
The world needs to start preparing to respond to that threat and the United States needs to lead the preparation. The first step is to unite the world’s democratic nations into an alliance. An alliance that focuses on three things, economic containment of China, a united effort to separate the world’s democracies from dependency on China for critical supplies (e.g., medicines and rare earths), then nurture and develop the alliance into a formidable defense alliance against the potential invasion of a pact composed of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The strategy of the defense alliance should be “Peace through Strength” with the U.S. serving as the backbone.
Alliance success in creating the movement has the potential to solve a myriad of other problems, including the internal bickering among political foes in America, the repudiation of wokeness as an ideology, a realization of multi-national corporations that they need to join the alliance (their customers) versus kowtowing to the CCP, and a move to technology innovation as a necessity for alliance domination. Hopefully, it would cause America to leverage its energy resources to generate the growth necessary to fund an increase in military equipment and infrastructure while simultaneously assisting the free world to extricate themselves from energy sources currently supplied by the autocracies of the world.
It is a strategy to protect the free world, achieve peace, and enhance prosperity. It might even lead to America securing its southern border.
COMMENT: As I read through the problem definition and solutions for each of the wars above it struck me that the current administration has exacerbated every single war and has done nothing to put in place any portion of the solutions.
THE ENDING
The series ended as it began with a cycle study of history. The ending cycle theory was very different than the beginning one. The “Fourth Turning” is a study of Anglo-American history since 1425 which shows a repeat of history approximately every 80 years. We are currently in the fourth turning of the seventh cycle. Every fourth turning has historically been a crisis of some sort, usually a major war.
The author Neil Howe just completed a book titled “The Fourth Turning is Here” and he posits a crisis in the early 2030s: either a “Civil War” internal to America or a “Great Power War” between four primary adversaries -- China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea and an “Indo-Pacific NATO” – America, much of the western hemisphere, most of Europe, and the high-income countries of the western Pacific Rim.
He then posits two scenarios for the first turning of the next cycle.
- The favorable scenarios posit an overwhelming sense of national unity for America and a rebuilding process either for America or the entire world dependent on which war occurs. By the 2040s the national mood will shift by degrees toward greater confidence and optimism and social stability with low rates of crime and social disorder.
- The unfavorable scenario posits that at best America would emerge intact and functional, but also weakened and demoralized. At worst it would emerge torn into pieces or be occupied.
The unabbreviated version of the above can be found in the pdf document below.
| america_23l_not_in_decline_--_segment_23.pdf |