In this segment, Klaus Schwab presents his views on how the technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution will impact and challenge the world – governments, the economy, business, individuals and society in general. He also provides his perspective on key aspects that must change and what must be retained as the new technologies are implemented.
He clearly states that most of the existing institutions in the world cannot or are ill-equipped to meet the challenges and requirements needed. Yet, he provides no definitive changes to these institutions. Nor does he propose any new institutions. It is almost as if he is preparing the world for change, and he will provide his recommended means of governance when society is sufficiently conditioned to accept his proposal. This lack of clarity is the case in all fives of Schwab’s books.
What we do know is in the 2010 “Global Redesign” report, the World Economic Forum calls for a global world to be best governed by a coalition of multinational corporations, governments and civil society organizations. A soft aristocracy if you will. This seemingly is in keeping with the tenor of this segment, based on the following excerpts: “Action and leadership are required from all organizations, sectors and individuals in the form of systems leadership involving new approaches to technology, governance and values,” “without appropriate global governance, we will become paralyzed in our attempts to address and respond to global challenges,” and “the more nationalism and isolationism pervades the global polity, the greater the chance that global governance loses its relevance and becomes ineffective.”
Next: The next segment contains excerpts from World Economic Forum critics relative to the excerpts of Segment 2 & 3. The critics certainly believe that a soft aristocracy is the intended means of governance for the world.
Happy Learning, Harley
GREAT RESET: IS DEMOCRACY (worldwide) IN DANGER? – SEGMENT 3 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION – EXCERPTS
INTRODUCTION: The scale and breadth of the unfolding technological revolution will usher in economic, social and cultural changes of such phenomenal proportions that they are almost impossible to envisage. The disruption that the fourth industrial revolutions will have on existing political, economic and social models will therefore require that empowered actors recognize that they are part of a distributed power system that requires more collaborative forms of interaction to succeed.
THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY: The 4th industrial revolution will have a monumental impact on the global economy, so vast and multifaceted that it makes it hard to disentangle one particular effect from the next. It will impact growth, employment, and the nature of work.
THE IMPACT ON BUSINESS: Overall, I see the impact of the 4th industrial revolution on business as an inexorable shift from the simple digitization that characterized the 3rd industrial revolution to a much more complex form of innovation based on the combination of multiple technologies in novel ways. This is forcing all companies to re-examine the way they do business and take different forms. The bottom line, however, remains the same. Business leaders and senior executives need to understand that disruption affects both the demand and supply sides of their business. In short, they have to innovate continuously.
CHANGING REQUIREMENTS: Governments: Governments, in their current form, will be forced to change as their central role of conducting policy increasingly diminishes due to the growing levels of competition and the redistribution and decentralization of power that new technologies make possible. Increasingly, governments will be seen as public-service centers that are evaluated on their abilities to deliver the expanded service in the most efficient and individualized way. Today’s political, legislative and regulatory authorities are often overtaken by events, unable to cope with the speed of technological change and the significance of its implications. As in previous industrial revolutions, regulation will play a decisive role in the adaptation and diffusion of new technologies.
Agile governance means that regulators must find ways to adapt continuously to a new, fast-changing environment by reinventing themselves to understand better what they are regulating. To do so, governments and regulatory agencies need to closely collaborate with business and civil society to shape the necessary global, regional and industrial transformations.
People: The movement of people around the world is both a significant phenomenon and a huge driver of wealth. How will the 4th industrial revolution impact human mobility? It may be too soon to tell but extrapolating from current trends indicates that mobility will play an ever more important role in society and economics in the future than today.
World Peace: The 4th industrial revolution will affect the scale of conflict as well as its character. The distinctions between war and peace and who is a combatant and noncombatant are becoming uncomfortably blurred. However, with technologies fusing in increasingly unpredictable ways and with state and armed non-state actors learning from each other, the potential magnitude of change is not yet widely appreciated. New types of warfare will include cyber warfare, autonomous warfare, and biological warfare.
When destructive capacity is no longer limited to a handful of entities with broadly similar resources, tactics and interests in preventing escalation doctrines such as mutually assured destruction (MAD) are less relevant. Actors with very different perspectives and interests need to be able to find some kind of modus vivendi and cooperate in order to avoid negative proliferation. Concerned stakeholders must cooperate to create legally binding frameworks as well as self-imposed peer-based norms, ethical standards and mechanisms to control potentially damaging emerging technologies, preferably without impeding the capacity of research to deliver innovation and economic growth.
International treaties will surely be needed, but I am concerned that regulators in this field will find themselves running behind technological advances, due to their speed and multifaceted impact. Hence, conversations among educators and developers about the ethical standards that should apply to emerging technologies of the 4th industrial revolution are urgently needed to establish common ethical guidelines and embed them in society and culture. With governments and government-based structures lagging behind in the regulatory space, it may actually be up to the private sector and non-state actors to take the lead.
THE CHALLENGES OF SOCIETY: The big challenge for most societies will be how to absorb and accommodate the new modernity while still embracing the nourishing aspects of our traditional value systems. The winners will be those who are able to participate fully in innovations-driven ecosystems by providing new ideas, business models, products and services, rather than those who can offer only low-skilled labor or ordinary capital. This will further inequality.
Digital media is connecting people one-to-one and one-to-many in entirely new ways, enabling users to maintain friendships across time and distance, creating new interest groups and enabling those who are socially or physically isolated to connect with like-minded people. The democratic power of digital media means it can also be used by non-state actors, particularly communities with harmful intentions to spread propaganda and to mobilize followers in favor of extremist causes. The fact that there is so much media available through digital channels can mean that an individual’s new sources become narrowed and polarized. This matters because what we read, share and see in the context of social media shapes our political and civic decisions. Source: The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab (2016)
The technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution have the possibility to greatly enhance global wealth. As in previous eras, these technologies could just as well increase inequality and social and political rifts which could bring our existing society close to collapse. Moreover, the advances in biotechnology and medical science could amplify inequality to levels never seen before, improving the lives and even bodies of wealthier humans to the point of creating a biological divide as well as a wealth divide. And technology could be applied to commit cyber warfare, with severe economic and social consequences. Source: Stakeholder Capitalism by Klaus Schwab (2021)
The world is facing unprecedented challenges. For the first time in human history, we are facing crucial planetary ecological limits. At the same time, we must create some 1.5 billion new jobs/livelihoods by 2050 against a backdrop of both population growth and ever more rapid technological change (much of which will replace entire swathes of existing jobs). Furthermore, given current rates of decoupling from carbon and other scarce ecological resources, we face a potential conflict between the goal of job creation and that of living within safe planetary limits. Add into this mix the growing geopolitical security challenges and cross-continental movements of refugees and economic migrants; the continued rise in global inequalities of wealth and income; and the positive and negative implications of the 4th industrial revolution – and it becomes obvious that we will confront either a catastrophic setback or a positive transformation in human progress. Either way, we face overwhelming system change. Many potential solutions are available, but what will determine whether or not such solutions are adopted, and system change is positive, will fundamentally depend on values. Values provide us with a clear destination and the means of getting there. Source: Shaping the Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab (2018)
THE CHALLENGES FOR THE INDIVIDUAL: The 4th industrial revolution is not only changing what we do but also who we are. The impact it will have on us as individuals is manifold, affecting our identity and its many related facets – our sense of privacy, the time we devote to work and leisure, how we develop our careers, cultivate our skills. It will influence how we meet people and nurture relationships, the hierarchies upon which we depend, our health, and maybe sooner than we think, it could lead to forms of human augmentation that cause us to question the very nature of human existence. Such changes elicit excitement and fear as we move at unprecedented speed.
We face similarly complex and on-the-edge questions with AI. Consider the possibility of machines thinking ahead of us or even outthinking us. What do we do? Trust the advice provided by an algorithm or that offered by family, friends or colleagues? Would we consult an AI-driven robot doctor with a perfect or near-perfect diagnosis success-rate – or stick with the human physician with the assuring bedside manner who has known us for years? How do we maintain our individuality, the source of our diversity and democracy, in the digital age?
SHAPING THE OUTCOME: The more we think about how to harness the technology revolution, the more we will examine ourselves and the underlying social models that these technologies embody and enable, and the more we will have an opportunity to shape the revolution in a manner that improves the state of the world. Source: The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab
There are no morals about technology at all. Technology expands our ways of thinking about things, expands our ways of doing things. If we are bad people, we use technology for bad purposes, and if we are good people, we use it for good purposes. The simple truth is that any technology can be used for good or for ill, and that no technology comes up with its own purposely designed value system. Humans decide. Source: The Great Narrative by Klaus Schwab and Thierry Malleret (2022)
Multi-stakeholders: To unleash the promise of the 4th Industrial Revolution, it is crucial to ensure that the benefits are distributed fairly across all stakeholders. These stakeholders are developing countries still struggling to grasp the benefits of prior industrial revolutions; the environment and natural world in general, which has borne the externalities of technological change across all industrial revolutions at a cost to other species and future generations; and the majority of individuals around the world without the benefit of extremely high incomes or political power.
Environmental changes call for faster mitigation and adaptation measures – not least in developed regions where the burden of climate change is biggest. The impact of new technologies on wealth distribution and social cohesions is revealing that our political systems and economic models are failing to fairly provide opportunities for all citizens. This means having the courage to confront existing economic and political paradigms and reshaping them to empower individuals regardless of ethnicity, age, gender, or background.
A New Type of Leadership: The dynamics, values, stakeholders and technologies of a transforming world – creates the opportunity for a broad cross section of leaders and citizens to think more deeply about the relationship between technology and society, understanding the ways in which our collective actions (and inactions) create the future. However, as much as the Fourth Industrial Revolution demands a shift in mindsets, it is not enough to merely appreciate the speed of change, scale of disruptions and types of new responsibilities implied by the development and adoption of emerging technologies. Action and leadership are required from all organizations, sectors and individuals in the form of “systems leadership,” involving new approaches to technology, governance and values. Source: Shaping the Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab (2018).
THE GREAT RESET: The worldwide crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic has no parallel in modern history. We will be dealing with its fallout for years, and many things will change forever. The fault lines of the world; most notably social divides, lack of fairness, absence of cooperation, failure of global governance and leadership – now lie exposed as never before, and people feel the time for reinvention has come. A new world will emerge, the contours of which are for us to both imagine and to draw. Nothing will ever return to the “broken” sense of normalcy that prevailed prior to the crisis because the coronavirus pandemic marks a fundamental inflection point in our global trajectory. We will continue to be surprised by both the rapidity and unexpected nature of these changes. They will shape a “new normal” radically different from the one we will be progressively leaving behind. Many of our beliefs and assumptions about what the world could or should look like will be shattered in the process.
One of the great lessons of the past five centuries in Europe and America is this: acute crises contribute to boosting the power of the state. It’s always been the case and there is no reason why it should be different with the COVID – 19 pandemic. The more nationalism and isolationism pervade the global polity, the greater the chance that global governance loses its relevance and become ineffective. Sadly, we are now at this critical juncture. Put bluntly, we live in a world in which nobody is really in charge.
COVID – 19 has reminded us that the biggest problems we face are global in nature. Whether it’s pandemics, climate change, terrorism or international trade, all are global issues that we can only address, and whose risks can only be mitigated, in a collective fashion. Without appropriate global governance, we will become paralyzed in our attempts to address and respond to global challenges.
COVID – 19 tells just such a story of failed global governance. From the very beginning, a vacuum of global governance, exacerbated by the strained relations between the US and China, undermined international efforts to respond to the pandemic. At the onset of the crisis, international cooperation was non-existent or limited and, even during the period when it was needed the most (in the acme of the crisis: during the second quarter of 2020), it remained conspicuous by its absence. Instead of triggering a set of measure coordinated globally, COVID – 19 led to the opposite.
This dysfunctionality is symptomatic of a broken global governance, and the jury is out as to whether existing global governance configurations like the UN and the WHO can be repurposed to address today’s global risks. Global coordination will be even more necessary in the aftermath of the epidemiological crisis, for it is inconceivable that the global economy could “restart” without sustained international cooperation. Without it, we’ll be heading towards “a poorer, meaner and smaller world.” Source: COVID-19: The Great Reset by Klauss Schwab and Thierry Malleret (July 2020).
The unabbreviated version of the above can be found in the pdf document below.