Developed in June 2018, Expanded in January 2022 CLIMATE CHANGE: INTRODUCTION When I decided to research Climate Change, I knew little about it from a scientific perspective. My exposure was primarily just to the “scary” predictions, the advancement of International Treaties (e.g., Kyoto Protocol) and some of the debate surrounding political mandates. I had no preconceived views on the debate, albeit I am skeptical of scientific data coming from political bodies. I structured the research to understand both sides of the debate, so I could make an informed decision on the matter.
I carefully selected 13 books to research – six from an advocacy point of view and seven from a skeptic point of view. I used Amazon as my source for the books and selected those with the best set of reviews from a couple of interest points. I was most interested in learning about climate science which, in my view, should be the heart of the debate and critical to understanding the validity of the projected consequences. I also wanted to understand any of the political drivers of the debate, so two of the books are primarily political in nature – an advocacy position and a skeptic position. So, the first 13 segments of this series constitute the debate, structured from the research. My intent in doing so is to provide you both sides of the debate so you can make an informed judgement.
Four years passed before I did additional research which is found in Epilogue’s 1 – 5. From my perspective it provides more relevant information on the totality of “Climate Change” than the first 13 segments which were predominantly on the science. So, if you do not want to wade through the first 13 segments, I prepared a primer of the science which follows.
1. Climate versus Weather We know weather well. It is localized, it changes often, and we relate to it in different ways – how hot or cold it is outside, is the day sunny or cloudy, is it going to rain or snow, is it going to be windy, what is the air quality going to be? We know it is going to change so we look ahead at the forecast. But the forecast usually doesn’t go beyond two weeks because that is about the limit for accurate forecasts. We look at it on a local basis.
Climate is very different than weather. It is global, very complex, changes very slowly and needs to be analyzed in 30+ year increments to start understanding trends. It does influence weather in the long term. Net, it does not make scientific sense to make conclusions about the climate from isolated weather conditions, particularly those that are localized. It needs to be analyzed on a global basis.
2. The Atmosphere The atmosphere adds significant complexity to climate, as it can influence how much sunlight reaches earth via clouds and smog as well as how much is reflected back into space. The amount that is reflected back into space is the source of the current climate change debate. The reflectivity of the earth and greenhouse gases affect how much of the incoming energy via the sun’s rays is reflected out of the atmosphere versus being insulated thus being retained on the earth’s surface. About 30% of the incoming solar radiation is reflected. It is the insulation properties of the greenhouse gases that determines how much is retained in the atmosphere versus being radiated back into space. These gases form the insulation blanket for earth. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted by fossil fuels that is retained in the insulation blanket is the concern of the climate change activists.
Ninety-nine percent of the atmosphere is composed of nitrogen (78%) and oxygen (21%). Because of the molecular structure of these gases heat from the sun’s rays passes through them easily. The largest remaining 1% of the atmosphere is the inert gas argon. Even less abundant gases make up the greenhouse gases which include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Water vapor makes up 90% of the greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide makes up 7%. Thus, carbon dioxide comprises about 3 molecules out of 10,000 or .028%. There are many sources of carbon dioxide on earth including the total amount exhaled in the breathing process of humans and animals offset by the amount plant life absorbs in its growing process (photosynthesis). Net, the earth’s insulation blanket is a very, very small part of the atmosphere
The radiation that is being reflected of the earth’s surface is composed of many different wave lengths. Water vapor completely blocks some of those wave lengths, but not all of them. Carbon dioxide will intercept some of the wave lengths the water vapor misses. Although the effect of CO2 at today’s concentrations is significant, doubling doesn’t change things much. [Think of painting a window black. The first coat of paint will block most of the sunlight coming in but not all of it, the second coat of paint will block a much smaller amount, and usually a third coat does nothing more as all of the light is already blocked. That is the situation with adding CO2 to the atmosphere] In total we are addressing not only a very, very small part of the atmosphere but the exact impact of greater CO2 concentration is extremely difficult to measure.
3. ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF FOSSIL FUEL BURNING Scientifically, to determine the impact of fossil fuel burning on the climate one first has to determine if the global average temperature is increasing. This is difficult in itself as thermometers have only been in existence for a couple of hundred years and then not everywhere on the globe. So, scientists have to rely on proxy records – tree rings, ice cores, corals, lake sediments, historical stories of weather, etc. This obviously is not as accurate as today’s satellite imagery.
Then, if an increase in average global temperature has occurred, the scientists have to determine how much of that is the result of Mother Nature, as we know historically, we have had significant global average temperature swings in the past, e.g., the ice age. If so, then how much of the temperature increase is natural. After deducting Mother Nature’s contribution to global warming whatever the temperature amount that is left unaccounted for could be because of the actions of humans, like the burning of fossil fuels. That is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is attempting to model to find out. Hopefully, this short primer will help you better grasp the excerpts which follow. To go to the series syllabus click here:Climate Change Syllabus To go to the book listing click here: Climate Change Book Listing