Segment 1: The Idea of American Decay In a 2017 Pew Research survey, 85% of respondents said the U.S. “stands above all other countries in the world and 58% responded that American democracy was working well.” Per the New York Times new data concludes 70% of Americans believe the U.S. is “in crisis and a risk of failing.” That is a very significant shift, but is it reality? This segment contains excerpts from six different authors of multiple backgrounds – a British Diplomat to the U.S., an American orthodox Jew, a North Korean refuge who is now a U.S. citizen, a Canadian immigrant, an Oxford trained scholar with a degree in Greek literature, and a veteran and former U.S. Treasury undersecretary who also held senior posts on the National Security Council – all concur the threat is real.
Segment 2: How the World Has Worked Legendary investor Ray Dalio and author of the #1 New York Times best seller Principles has spent a half century studying global economies and markets. In doing so, he found that all empires and dynasties rose and declined in a similar way which he defines as the Big Cycle. Further that within the Big Cycle there are always three major sub-cycles. This segment describes each which enables one to determine not only where major powers are in the cycle but what the next stage is likely to be.
Segment 3: How the World has Worked in the Last 400 Years In the last 400 years there have been three empires/superpowers that have dominated the world: the Dutch Empire (1625-1795), the British Empire (1700 – 1945), and the United States (1776 – present). All have similar paths in their rise to power, their time at the top, and in the first two cases their decline. Dalio concludes the U.S. is roughly 70% through the Big Cycle and in decline. Further that China is on the rise of their potential period as a superpower.
Segment 4: What Can We Learn from Rome Segments 2 and 3 provide a first look at history to determine whether America is in decline. This segment introduces a second independent historical look to provide wisdom in understanding if our country is in decline by analyzing the fall of the Roman Empire and the reasons underpinning its decline. In looking at three different sources on Rome’s decline they are reasonably consistent in the reasons why of which there are eight which are highlighted in the segment. The eight reasons are: Division from Within, Weakening of Values, Political Instability, Overspending, Economic Troubles, National Security, Weakening of Legions, and Invasion of Foreigners. The next nine segments (5 – 13) provide analyses of where we are as a country on each of the eight reasons for Rome’s fall.
Segment 5: Division from Within The first analysis of America on the reasons for Rome’s fall, “Division from Within” posits there are three major divisions in the U.S. today: A Self-Identification Division: How we each self-identify: Tribal vs. Individualistic; A Society Division: How Society Categorizes Us: Victim or Victimizer; and A Political Division: Right or Leftist. The excerpts will analyze all three.
Segment 6: Weakening of Values There is certainly significant debate on maintaining some traditional values versus discarding or replacing them which are highlighted in the excerpts – the traditional family, meritocracy, equality of opportunity, empathy, patriotism, education vs. indoctrination; free speech; corporate responsibility; and religion. The segment ends with the results of a Wall Street Journal poll on how values have shifted since 1998.
Segment 7: Political Instability – Government Do the current controversies over Crime, Energy Sourcing, Social Justice edicts (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion), Actions/Inactions of our institutions (FBI, Department of Justice, Supreme Court), Foreign Policy (Afghanistan withdrawal, alliances of Russia, China, Iran), Control of Southern Border, Federal and Local Mandates, and School Curriculums constitute political instability in the country? This segment and the segment that follows explore the question.
Segment 8: Political Instability – Justice System The excepts in this segment focus on fairly recent actions of inactions on the part of Federal Agencies – Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Homeland Security, as well as local and state law enforcement agencies (District Attorneys and Police Forces) that have created political instability. Is it enough to be considered as an element of national decline?
Segment 9: Overspending Our national debt increased from $6 trillion in 2001 to a level approaching $32 trillion today, an incredible 466% increase. If graphed from World War II it looks like a protracted hockey stick on its side. The interest payments on the debt are also markedly increasing because of inflation resulting in significant interest rate increases. The Modern Monetary Theorists say don’t worry; the dollar is a reserve currency and protects us. Noted Stanford economist John Taylor contends federal spending should be about 19 ½ % of GDP ot lower. It is 25% today after hitting 31% in 2020.
Segment 10: Economic Trouble Economic trouble was a particularly major reason for the fall of the Roman Empire, as they fundamentally ran out of money. This segment provides three economic measures to gauge our country’s economic health: Debt-to-GDP ratio; Government spending-to-GDP ratio; and the Interest bite, the chunk that debt servicing takes out of Federal tax receipts. The excerpts also provide an interesting case of why a balanced budget amendment is a terrible idea for the Federal Government.
Segment 11: National Security This segment addresses several aspects of national security so you can judge the question of decline of our country because of them. These include: Immigration, the Middle East, and China.
Segment 12: Weakening of Legions There are three pieces to this segment. First, is there a weakening of the general population of America in terms of our resiliency if we had to defend ourselves from foreign invasion? Second, the state of readiness of our military as evaluated annually by the Heritage Foundation. Third, is there a weakening of the men and women in uniform charged with protecting our country? The excerpts provide answers to all three points.
Segment 13: Invasion of Foreigners China is the major threat to the United States and are on record that their major objective is to supplant the United States as the major superpower in the world by 2049. What mechanisms they will deploy to do so is unknown. However, they are actively building up their military power. This segment provides insight in how they stack up to the U.S. militarily today.
Segment 14: What Might the Future Hold Ray Dalio’s model strongly indicates the United States is in decline. The above 9 segments which analyze our current situation on the eight Roman Empire aspects of decline also support the decline conclusion. Dalio’s model predicts, based on historical patterns, that the next stage is likely to be conflict/war. But history also teaches us that there are five major types of conflict/war: 1) trade/economic wars, 2) technology wars, 3) geopolitical wars, 4) capital wars, and 5) military wars. To that Dalio adds 6) culture wars and 7) wars with ourselves. The excerpts provide the details for all of the above.
Segment 15: Capturing the Wisdom, We’ve Uncovered Interestingly, when I reviewed the analyses of the Roman Empire reasons for failure, they translate to five wars of Dalio’s seven. Specifically, a Capital (economic war), a Geopolitical war, a Technology war, an Internal war, and a potential Military war. In this segment I catalog the wisdom developed to date and summarize them into problem definitions for each of the above wars. Segments 16 – 21 will contain these problem definitions followed by potential solutions to address those problems in hopes of reversing the decline.
Segment 16: The Capital War The first part of the segment contains the problem definition for the Capital War from segment 15 followed by excerpts on potential solutions. This is followed by my summary of a potential solution. The reasons the national debt has risen so significantly in recent decades, measurement of our economic health, the effect of rising interest rates on the debt burden, and the effect of the national debt on the economy are contained in the segment.
Segment 17: The Geopolitical War Wisdom on the geopolitical problems facing the country is contained in the problem definition of the Geopolitical War. It is followed by potential solutions to immigration, COVID-19 accountability, addressing our trade deficit with China, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s view on America’s alliances, and weakness in decision-making processes of several government agencies. The segment also includes the perspectives of three Presidential hopefuls on a few national security issues; specifically, by Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump.
Segment 18: The Technology War The challenge of the Technology War is to gain the positives from the emerging technologies while minimizing the negatives, plus accomplishing the resultant gains faster and better than China, as we are the only two countries in the game. This segment describes the problem and fashions a solution. Excerpts from David H. McCormick’s book Superpower in Peril contains a great deal of wisdom on what America needs to do to combat China’s technology advances in this all-important war. Many report that the winner of the technology war will determine the superpower of the world.
Segment 19: The Internal War: Political Instability There are two facets creating political instability in our country today. The first is political instability of the government as reported in segment 7 and the second is the political instability created by corruption in our judicial system as reported in segment 8. These are summarized in the problem definition in the first part of the segment. The second part of the segment provides wisdom on how to address both.
Segment 20: The Internal War: Values and Division Segment 20 takes the wisdom derived from Segments 5 & 6 (Division from Within and Weakness of Values) and recasts it into a problem definition as part of the Internal War which is transpiring in our country today. Do we denigrate or embrace the current American system, do we endorse meritocracy or wokeism, do we support the traditional family and the associated values or not, do we want equity or opportunity for our children, should the curriculum of our school system focus on Left leaning indoctrination or education, which is the larger social threat – free speech or censorship, as a society should we advocate for tribalism or multiculturalism, and how does individualism fit in? How do each of us wrap our minds around the binary choices to answer these questions? An answer to each is part of the segment.
Segment 21: The Military War Segment 16 – 20 addresses the four wars in which we are currently engaged. This segment focuses on a potential war with China and what we need to do to prepare for it (hopefully as a deterrent). The first portion of the segment is a problem definition of our preparedness as developed in segments 12 & 13; Weakening of Legions and Invasion of Foreigners. The second part provides wisdom of what is needed to enhance our preparedness. The third section are some Presidential candidate’s perspectives on China, the Military, and National Security – those of Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump, Robert Kennedy, Jr., Asa Hutchinson, and Nikki Haley.
Segment 22: The Fourth Turning This segment is a second cycle theory named “The Fourth Turning” based on Anglo-American history dating back to 1435 in which on seven occasions society has repeated a social mood in a decided pattern of about 20 years wherein the fourth 20-year period results in crisis. We are now in the fourth turning of this 80 year or so period which started after World War II (which interestingly was 81 years following the Civil War which was 71 years after the Revolutionary War). The Fourth Turning book was published in 1997. In it the two authors made several predictions, many of which have come to pass. One author died of cancer, but the remaining author published a second book which came out on July 18, 2023, titled “The Fourth Turning is Here.” In it he not only describes why the fourth turning is here but predicts how it is going to end. The Fourth Turning model is very compatible with Dalio’s model. The excerpts are from both books. Segment 23: Counterpoint: The U.S. -Led Order Isn’t in Decline This segment is a reprint of a November 1, 2022, article in “Foreign Affairs” written by G. John Ikenberry entitled “Why American Power Endures: The U.S.-Led Order Isn’t in Decline.” It is a counterpoint to the entire series providing a perspective as to why our country is not in decline and those who report it are wrong.